Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (March 2010 Home Sales Update)

The number of home sales in the Mill Valley, California real estate market held exactly even in February – 16 trades (February usually has lower sales totals because it is a short month with two legal holidays and bcause January tends to have weather which limits buyer activity). Based on last month’s total sales, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last 5.1 months (absorption rate). This number is higher than last month because of the large number of homes that came on the market very recently. As discussed below, however, our touchstone price band is performing very well. 

Insofar as the sales and apsorption rate of Mill Valley’s touchstone price band ($1 million to $ 2million) are concerned, the market appears to be striding towards normalcy. As indicated above, compared with the past 2 years’ February totals, sales are up 50% over 2008 and double that of 2009. Meanwhile, the chart below shows a market with a serious increase in sales velocity — there is barely 3 months’ inventory for homes priced in the touchstone price band. This is a big reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months.

Indeed, although we are at the precipice of the traditional selling season, the number of homes for sale in Mill Valley remains low at 82. We still believe that many “real buyers” stand poised to act on the right property. Certainly, the media’s negative feedback loop seems to have reversed itself as most mainstream economy-related articles seem to be more positive in nature as consumer spending has increased. Certainly, investors are “flipping” homes again! Mill Valley’s entry level price band (under $800,000) is as strong as it has been in recent history — with 54% of homes currently in escrow. Below is a table detailing the number of homes in escrow in each price band:

Homes in Tam Valley, Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, and Country Club generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service. Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin | Pacific Union International.

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (August 2009 Home Sales Update)

The Mill Valley, CA. real estate market remains predictably unpredictable — after just 17 sales in May 2009, we had a robust 29 sales in June 2009, followed by 22 sales in July 2009. As I noted in last month’s report, the decline in sales numbers this month was expected as families focus more on vacations and outside activities. And September will bring even fewer home sales, along with a moderate rise in inventory and increased buyer activity.

Over the past quarter in much of Marin County, it has become apparent that asking prices have halted their downward spiral. As is evident in the graph below, which tracks the median price per square foot (down from $740 to $615), in Mid-June 2009 prices flattened out in Mill Valley. It will be interesting to see whether this flattening out carries over into the sales prices of homes trading this Fall and Winter.

Based on last month’s sales total of 22, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last about 5.45 months (up from 4.6 months in July 2009) — this is called the absorption rate. This is a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months. A big reason for the lower absorption rate is the reduced inventory as sellers removed thier homes from the market for the Summer — we currently have just 120 active listings.

While not discussed by most real estate agents, the absorption rate is an important barometer of market health. Below is a graph showing that in 2009, Mill Valley has consistently outperformed 2008 in terms of homes absorbed. Thus, while many agents seem despondent and unenthusiastic about the market, the truth is that things are much better than last year and continue improving. I predict that sales activity will increase significantly in the late Fall and into the Winter months, not only because of continued favorable interest rates, but also because I think there are many “real buyers” out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy — I don’t know what that sign will be (there are likely to be many “signs”), but it will come soon for “real buyers.”

Most activity in Mill Valley is occurring in the sub $1 million price bands, which can be characterized as neutral markets, favoring neither buyers nor sellers. The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is hovering at a low 12% (about the same as last month). Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) saw some meaningful activity with 3 sales last month and another 6 currently in escrow. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	17 (up 2)	37%
$800K – $1 mil.	18 (down 3)	36%
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.	40 (up 1)	18%
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.	18 (no change)	0%
$2 mil. – $4 mil.	30 (down 1)	17%
$4 mil. & Up	4 (no change)	0%

Mill Valley’s 22 sales from July 2009 gave rise to the following averages: 86 days on the market; an average price of $963,591; and about 1,844 sq. ft. (or about $556 per sq. ft.). Homes in Tam Valley, Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, Country Club, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Readers of my monthly reports on Mill Valley, CA. are well aware of my love for Mill Valley. And what’s not to like? For starters: (1) A quick and easy commute to San Francisco, (2) often spectacular views of the Bay, the Golden Gate Bridge (a short 5-10 minutes down HWY 101), and Mt. Tam, (3) excellent schools, (4) pleasant weather, (4) a mellow, laid back ambiance, (5) a town square unlike any other in Marin (you have to go to the town of Sonoma for anything like it), (6) diverse social events (think Mill Valley Film Festival & The Dipsea Race), (7) lots of good restaurants, and (8) excellent shopping choices, including non-gentrified, family-owned boutiques and shops of all kinds.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.