The Mill Valley real estate market remains predictably unpredictable — after logging 17 sales in May 2009, we had a robust 29 sales in June 2009. Typically, sales slow down as Summer begins and families focus more on vacations and outside activities. That slowdown will be reflected in July sales numbers. Nonetheless, there is serious value in Mill Valley right here, right now. This is true for every price band. Note to buyers: write offers! A closed mouth does not get fed. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.

The above chart tracks asking prices and shows that since November 2007 prices have slid from about $740 per square foot to about $615. As I have noted in market updates relating to other towns in Marin, asking prices have flattened out over the past 6 weeks. It will be interesting to see if this is a leading indicator of increased sales prices that carries into the Fall.

Based on last month’s sales total of 29, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last a bit more than 4.6 months. This a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate the month before, which stood at well over 8 months. Indeed, along with the larger number of sales, lots of inventory was removed from the market for the Summer and the number of homes for sale dropped to 134.

Most activity in Mill Valley is occurring in the sub $1 million price bands, which can be characterized as neutral markets, favoring neither buyers nor sellers. The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is hovering at a low 14% (about the same as last month). Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) saw some meaningful activity with 4 sales last month (including an off market sale for $5 million) and another 3 currently in escrow.

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	15 (down 4)	32%
$800K – $1 mil.	21 (down 5)	38%
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.	39 (down 3)	15%
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.	18 (down 2)	14%
$2 mil. – $4 mil.	29 (down 1)	3%
$4 mil. & Up	4 (down 1)	0%

Mill Valley’s 29 sales from June 2009 gave rise to the following averages: 98 days on the market; an average price of $1.47 million; and about 2,485 sq. ft. (or about $595 per sq. ft.). Homes in Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, Country Club, Homestead Valley, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Readers of my monthly reports on Mill Valley, CA. are well aware of my love for Mill Valley. And what’s not to like? For starters: (1) A quick and easy commute to San Francisco, (2) often spectacular views of the Bay, the Golden Gate Bridge (a short 5-10 minutes down HWY 101), and Mt. Tam, (3) excellent schools, (4) pleasant weather, (4) a mellow, laid back ambiance, (5) a town square unlike any other in Marin (you have to go to the town of Sonoma for anything like it), (6) diverse social events (think Mill Valley Film Festival & The Dipsea Race), (7) lots of good restaurants, and (8) excellent shopping choices, including non-gentrified, family-owned boutiques and shops of all kinds.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. I also have a fixer listed in Homestead Valley that is a super value play, priced at $699,000 (3 Beds/3 Baths, 14,000 sq. ft. lot backing Molino Park). If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Readers of my monthly reports on Mill Valley, CA. are well aware of my love for Mill Valley. They are also among the most informed consumers of Marin real estate (why else would they be reading my blog?). As such, despite my bias favoring Mill Valley, these consumers KNOW that Mill Valley presents serious value — right here, right now. This is true for every price band. 

Here are some numbers to contemplate: (1) just eleven homes sold in Mill Valley last month — a slow market; (2) of the eleven homes that sold, four were priced under $800K; (3) the bread-and-butter price band is experiencing an abysmal 8% to 13% escrow rate; (4) the current absorption rate (AR) for homes in Mill Valley’s sweet spot (homes priced between $1 million and $2 million) is an amazingly high 17.25 months. 

Note to buyers: write offers! A closed mouth does not get fed. Ask and you shall receive. Life happens and people have to sell their homes. Last night on Larry King, Donald Trump said that he has never seen a window of opportunity like this one and that this is the best time to buy real estate he has ever seen. Whatever you think of the source, can you really disagree? Don’t have a down payment? If not, do what it takes and put one together. Interest rates will shoot up at some point, evaporating affordability.

If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.  

For several months my Mill Valley, CA, real estate report has noted that the market “is strangely out of sync,” buyers “are taking a few pitches to see what happens,” and I have also aired my suspicions about “undercover buyers” who are ready to buy and want to buy the “right” home. More than ever, I believe this is all true. And all I can say is “write offers.” 

As evidenced by the above graph, The median price per square foot has dipped to about $625 per sq. ft. (which is down from well over $800 in mid-2007). While some buyers believe prices may slip a bit more, as noted above, most appreciate the fact that interest rates are very appealing. Indeed, mortgage math punishes those who don’t lock in at or near the lowest rate possible. For example, if prices dip another 5% and interest rates go up just 1%, the monthly payment would increase rather significantly for an $800K home with 20% down (call me for exact numbers relating to a given situation). 

Down from March 2009, the percentage of homes in escrow under $800,000 slipped to 26% (it had been as low as 15% in November 2008). I have a fixer listed in Homestead Valley that is a super value play (3 Beds/3 Baths, 14,000 sq. ft. lot backing Molino Park).

Based on last month’s sales total of eleven, we currently have an overall inventory of homes (AR) sufficient to last about 12 months in Mill Valley, CA.  Overall, the number of homes for sale rose to 122 (way up from 90 a month ago). The number of “bead and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is a mere 9 — (which is low, but there were just 3 in escrow in February 2009). Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up remains drowsy — just a single luxury home closed last month, but there are three currently in escrow. 

Of the 11 sales to close escrow in March 2009, they averaged 119 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.25 million with about 2,047 sq. ft. (or about $645 per sq. ft.). Homes in Homestead Valley, Sycamore Park, Middle Ridge, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

p.s. I currently have a couple potential sellers waiting in the wings with homes not on the MLS, please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs.

Like many of us, Mill Valley buyers are doing all they can to busy themselves in an effort to avoid being confronted with the dismal stock market results over the past few weeks. On the bright side, from a real estate perspective, the massive retrenchment taking place on the The Street is resulting in many folks liquidating those assets and looking to place them into an attractive alternative. And as luck would have it, Marin real estate provides a good outlet for these investment dollars. Yet, the market in Mill Valley does not yet reflect the expected uptick in sales numbers at the low end. I would expect that at least 50% of homes under $800,000 in Mill Valley would be in escrow, but that is not the case.

Overall, Mill Valley’s real estate market is cruising through the Autumn with little momentum. The market remains one favoring flexible buyers intent on making sacrifices in order to obtain value. Customarily for this time of year, sellers who don’t need to sell will now wait for the promise of the new year. Yet, I expect this Winter we will see many of the so-called “undercover buyers” (e.g., financially stable people waiting for the “right time” to buy) writing strong offers in an effort to take advantage of the confluence of two factors: (1) the apparent nadir of the market in general; and (2) the Wintertime’s seasonal leverage which favors buyers. I am talking with lots people who fit this profile. Although prices have not receded in Mill Valley quite like those of Novato (click HERE for Novato101.com’s market analysis for November 2008), these “undercover buyers” are eagerly investigating their options.   

Continuing a trend first noted in my September 2008, we are actually seeing a reduction in the percentage of entry level homes in escrow across the board. Interestingly, even the entry level is down to just 15% of homes in escrow (down from 53% in July 2008 and 20% in September 2008). Overall, the number of homes for sale in Mill Valley is down to 101. The vast majority of homes are priced between $1 million to $2 million and just 9 of those homes are currently in escrow. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) has clearly entered into an early hibernation this year as buyers are stepping back from major purchases during these unsettled economic times. Zero luxury homes are in escrow at the time of this writing–a great environment for portfolio buyers.

 

Mill Valley homes that sold during the past month averaged 98 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.443 million and including about 2,185 sq. ft. (about $652 per sq. ft).      

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	11 (down 1)	15%
$800K – $1 mil.	15 (up 3)	12%
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.	34 (down	11%
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.	16 (down 12)	20%
$2 mil. – $4 mil.	22 (up 4)	0%
$4 mil. & Up	4 (up 2)	0%

 

All year long, it has seemed that buyers and agents alike have lamented the seeming lack of inventory of homes for sale in Mill Valley. Yet, inventory is actually up by over 20%. While many buyers with a strong desire to buy and market insight are finding great value in homes right now, other buyers are paying premiums for special homes in key locations and with unique attributes. Overall, Mill Valley’s real estate market is cruising into the Fall with good bit of momentum (although sales are down from last year). It remains a market that favors buyers who are flexible and willing to make sacrifices in order to obtain value. Meanwhile, many sellers have decided to wait for the real estate market to improve. Interestingly, I am also seeing many folks come through open houses who fit the following profile: they sold their homes a couple of years ago and have been renting with the expectation that home prices would come down (as with the dot-com bust, many saw the current real estate market slowdown on the horizon). Although prices have not dipped in Mill Valley as they have in Northern Marin, these potential buyers are eyeing the current market hungrily and many of them are investigating their options.  

 

Oddly, August 2008 saw a marked slowdown in the percentage of entry level homes in escrow from July 2008 (it dropped from 53% of homes priced under $800,000 to 20%). Mill Valley’s inventory of single family homes for sale is about 142 homes currently on the market (there were 102 in August 2008). The vast majority of homes are priced between $1 million to $2 million and 15 of those homes are currently in escrow, along 6 more in the luxury market between $2 million and $4 million. Historically, September and October bring an uptick in sales.

 

Mill Valley homes that sold during the past month averaged 88 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.358 million (about $689 per square foot). Note here that the low end of the Mill Valley market is hanging tough and that there are ONLY 2 homes currently on the market under $750,000. How’s that for stiff price for entry.   

 

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	12 (up 6)	20%
$800K – $1 mil.	12 (down 5)	20%
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.	42 (up 2)	23%
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.	28 (up 9)	7%
$2 mil. – $4 mil.	18 (up 7)	25%
$4 mil. & Up	2 (down 1)	33%