Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (October 2009 Home Sales Update)

The good new is that it seems the media has turned a corner on its reporting of the U.S. and worldwide economies, as well as the housing market. Positive press coverage has permeated all forms of media and is certain to change the tide, although it will take time. Significantly, San Francisco agents are reporting a significant surge in sales and prices. We know from past experience, that once San Francisco recovers, surrounding communities recover in a geo-concentrically expanding fashion.

Yet, the Mill Valley, CA. real estate market continues to limp along, offering hope of recovery, but not fully reaching the plateau (or nadir, as it were). Pardon the inevitable mixed metaphors, but it seems the real estate market is like an elite athlete with an ankle sprain, constantly at risk of further injury or re-aggravation. Our low expectations for September were fulfilled as we had just 21 home sales — same as in July and August 2009.

While is seemed that prices had gathered traction after a slippery first half of the year, last month’s price per square foot of homes sold dipped to $529 — note that the graph below tracks asking prices and the average price per square foot for homes on the market is holding steady at about $615. We have been waiting to see whether this flattening out of asking prices would carry over into the sales prices of homes trading this Fall and Winter and it appears the answer in “no.”

Based on last month’s sales total of 21, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last a bit more than 5.67 months (virtually the same as August 2009) — this is called the absorption rate. This is still a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months. The number of homes in escrow is also virtually the same as last month. We think there are many real buyers out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy — we don’t know what that sign will be (there are likely to be many “signs”), but we feel it will likely come soon.

As with Marin overall, the most active segment is the sub $1 million price bands, which can be characterized as neutral markets, favoring neither buyers nor sellers. Well over half of last month’s sales were under $1 million. The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is up from last month to about 20%. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) saw strong activity last month (5 sales) — and another 9 such homes are in escrow.

Homes in Tam Valley, Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, and Country Club generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service. Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin and Pacific Union International.

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (July 2009 Home Sales Update)

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (June 2009 Home Sales Update)

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (May 2009 Home Sales Update)

We are consistently asked by our clients (sellers), “when will our markets return to normal?” We formed our definition of a normal Marin County market in our Q3 2008 Luxury Newsletter (call us for a copy) only to be followed by the October ’08 stock market meltdown. A normal Mill Valley market over the past ten years has been an annual average of 377 single family homes sold (31 per month). For the past six months the total has been 78 (16 per month). The number of units sold is off roughly 50%. Without closings we have limited comparables to make investment decisions. We are all looking for recent closings to benchmark property values. In the stock market we know CitiGroup Inc. will not soon return to its September 2008 value of $25 per share. In turn, we do not expect Mill Valley real estate to return to early – mid 2008 values. The question is what will the going forward adjustment be? To address “the adjustment” we need to focus neighborhood-by-neighborhood and client-by-client. It is our feeling that Mill Valley, CA closings in December 2008 – April 2009 represent comparables based on sellers that had to sell, and quickly, or sellers that thought the market would fall faster in the Spring ’09 and elected to set the comparables vs. having them used against them.

Mill Valley Real Estate Market Report (January 2009 Home Sales Update)

Entering the new year, there is optimism that the Mill Valley, California real estate market will gather traction following the slowdown of late 2008. I suspect that the “undercover buyers” who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the “right time” to buy will make their move as new inventory hits the market and old inventory prices recalibrate (downwards). Although many buyers still believe prices may slip a bit more, many of them also appreciate the fact that interest rates have never, ever been lower (this was the 4th week in a row with record low rates)–these rates are not likely to last. Mortgage math punishes those who don’t lock in at the lowest rate possible–even if prices dipped 5%, if interest rates went up 1-point, the monthly payment would in many cases be higher. In light of the once in a lifetime low rates, surprisingly low prices, and the wide variety of home choices, I anticipate an up-tick in activity. Also, those who were fortunate enough to receive a year end bonus for 2008 (I know that quite a few San Francisco companies and law firms handed out their regular bonuses) are set to move forward on their purchases.

In a reversal from the past quarter, the percentage of homes in escrow under $800,000 rose to 38% (it had been as low as 15% in November) with an absorption rate of 7 months (e.g., a 7-month supply of homes). Overall, Mill Valley inventory dipped to 74 homes for sale. Just 7 “bead and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) are currently under contract. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) continues hibernating–a mere one luxury home has an accepted offer in place.

As for sales, we had 10 Mill Valley home sales close escrow in December 2008 (there were 14 in November 2008). They averaged 127 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $917,000 with about 1,890 sq. ft. (or about $493 per sq. ft). The numbers from December reflect the fact that 7 of the 10 sales were priced under $1 million (in Mill Valley, these are generally entry level homes).

Homes in Boyle Park and Sycamore Park continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Mill Valley Real Estate Market Report (November 2008 Home Sales Update)

Homes in Boyle Park, Middle Ridge, Almonte, and Cascade Canyon continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like more information, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Mill Valley Homes & Real Estate (October 2008)

Homes in Boyle Park, Middle Ridge, Homestead Valley, and Sycamore Park continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like more information, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@NorthBayRE.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Boyle Park (Mill Valley Neighborhoods Description)

Boyle Park is one of Mill Valley’s most sought-after neighborhoods. It sits on the northern side of E. Blithedale Road in Mill Valley, Marin County, California. As its name suggests, it is named after and surrounds the park that shares its name and serves as its anchor. Boyle Park is truly one of the best parks in Mill Valley, with sports fields, tennis, paths, and other areas for playing (including a toddlers area), picnics, and relaxing. It features the following:

• Large open grassy area
• Tennis courts (Passes required)
• Picnic tables
• Bench or benches
• Bathrooms
• Playground/play structure
• Creek access
• Baseball diamond
• Large open grassy area 
• BBQ Grill & group picnic areas (reservations required)
• Dogs permitted - Leash required

Boyle Park is also one of the sunnier parts of Mill Valley, is close to downtown, and just a couple of minutes off HWY 101. Home prices range from about $1 million to $2 million, with exceptional properties selling above that price range. These prices are about average for Mill Valley.

If you have any questions about Boyle Park, Mill Valley, or Marin County, please let me know. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a broker and Certified Residential Specialist (CRS) with Frank Howard Allen Realtors (the biggest and best firm in Marin County). And it is always my pleasure to be of service. I can be reached at (415) 350-9440.

Mill Valley Neighborhoods

While the prevailing ethos of Mill Valley can be found in all corners, its various neighborhoods each offer something unique.

Mill Valley Homes & Real Estate (August 2008)

Predictably and in line with June 2008, 53% of homes priced under $800,000 and 18% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million are in escrow. Mill Valley’s inventory of single family homes for sale is about 102 homes currently on the market (there were 107 in July 2008). Mill Valley homes that sold during the past month averaged 56 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.726 million (about $724 per square foot), and averaged about 2,348 square feet.