Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (November 2009 Home Sales Update)

November 9, 2009

We know from past experience that in down cycles, once the San Francisco housing market recovers, there is a domino effect on surrounding communities. Accordingly, in our current cycle, we believe that our best leading indicator regarding a healthy, appreciating market (particularly in Southern Marin) will be the home sales environment in San Francisco. And there can be no doubt that the San Francisco market has improved dramatically in recent months. Additionally, as the banking institutions regain their footing and again provide bonuses to their employees, we will also see a surge in luxury home sales. In fact, if bonuses are significant and broad-based, I predict a very strong luxury sales market early in 2010 as buyers snap up the many “values” out there in the luxury and ultra-luxury sectors.

Mill Valley will be first in line to benefit from this influx of local income. Meanwhile, however, the number of homes sold remains low. In October, we had just 20 home sales — virtually the same as in July, August, and September 2009. Many believe that the low number of sales is due in large part to a lack of “sexy inventory.”  And in fact, turnkey homes that are priced competitively and located in desirable areas sell FAST.  Meanwhile, homes with “challenges” in regard to location, condition, or price are simply not selling.

Sales prices seem to have gathered traction after a slippery first half of the year, last month’s price per square foot of homes sold was $565 (home sales prices have held steady in this general price per square foot range for months now). Of course, price per square foot is an often misleading indicator as applied to individual homes for several reasons (e.g., condition, location, usable yard space, and the size of the home — the larger the home, the lower the price per square foot). Indeed, a nice home in Sycamore Park may sell for $750-$800 per square foot. It all depends on the various factors in play.

Note that the graph below tracks asking prices and the average price per square foot for homes on the market is rising. It is currently approximately $620 per square foot. It remains to be seen whether this rise will translate into higher sales prices.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Based on last month’s sales total of 20, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last 5.3 months (slightly lower than last month) — this is called the absorption rate. This is still a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months.

The number of homes in escrow is up by about 11% from last month. We think there are many real buyers out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy — we don’t know what that sign will be (there are likely to be many “signs”), but we feel it will likely come soon.

In fact, the percentage of homes in escrow has risen to 55% in the bottom price band (under $800,000). This indicates that Mill Valley’s low end market is becoming very competitive and that fact bodes well. In Novato, for example, we believe the bottom began to form in April 2009 when it’s low end market began to see escrow ratios over 50% (Novato’s entry level price band has since reached over 80% of homes in escrow in what has become a very tight market). Since then, Novato’s overall market has become increasingly hotter across all price bands. I believe if Mill Valley follows suit, we will see a marked increase in sales over the next few months, particularly if San Francisco firms begin providing bonuses again in the New Year. Remember, last year, there were no bonuses and as a result (at least in part), we had a flat-lining market for the first 5 months of the year.

Below is a graph detailing the number of homes in escrow in each price band:

Price Range

Total Active Homes

Pending Listings

Up to $800K

15 (down 2)

55%

$800K - $1 mil.

13 (down 6)

24%

$1 mil. - 1.5 mil.

31 (down 4)

26%

$1.5 mil. - $2 mil.

19 (no change)

24%

$2 mil. & Up

28

10%

Mill Valley’s 20 sales in October 2009 gave rise to the following averages: 86 days on the market; an average price of $1,202,173; and about 2,188 sq. ft. (or about $565 per sq. ft.).

Homes in Tam Valley, Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, and Country Club generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service. Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin and Pacific Union International.

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (July 2009 Home Sales Update)

July 18, 2009

The Mill Valley real estate market remains predictably unpredictable — after logging 17 sales in May 2009, we had a robust 29 sales in June 2009. Typically, sales slow down as Summer begins and families focus more on vacations and outside activities. That slowdown will be reflected in July sales numbers. Nonetheless, there is serious value in Mill Valley right here, right now. This is true for every price band. Note to buyers: write offers! A closed mouth does not get fed. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.
Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com
The above chart tracks asking prices and shows that since November 2007 prices have slid from about $740 per square foot to about $615. As I have noted in market updates relating to other towns in Marin, asking prices have flattened out over the past 6 weeks. It will be interesting to see if this is a leading indicator of increased sales prices that carries into the Fall.

Based on last month’s sales total of 29, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last a bit more than 4.6 months. This a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate the month before, which stood at well over 8 months. Indeed, along with the larger number of sales, lots of inventory was removed from the market for the Summer and the number of homes for sale dropped to 134.

Most activity in Mill Valley is occurring in the sub $1 million price bands, which can be characterized as neutral markets, favoring neither buyers nor sellers. The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is hovering at a low 14% (about the same as last month). Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) saw some meaningful activity with 4 sales last month (including an off market sale for $5 million) and another 3 currently in escrow.

Price Range

Total Active Homes

Pending Listings

Up to $800K

15 (down 4)

32%

$800K - $1 mil.

21 (down 5)

38%

$1 mil. - 1.5 mil.

39 (down 3)

15%

$1.5 mil. - $2 mil.

18 (down 2)

14%

$2 mil. - $4 mil.

29 (down 1)

3%

$4 mil. & Up

4 (down 1)

0%

Mill Valley’s 29 sales from June 2009 gave rise to the following averages: 98 days on the market; an average price of $1.47 million; and about 2,485 sq. ft. (or about $595 per sq. ft.). Homes in Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, Country Club, Homestead Valley, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Readers of my monthly reports on Mill Valley, CA. are well aware of my love for Mill Valley. And what’s not to like? For starters: (1) A quick and easy commute to San Francisco, (2) often spectacular views of the Bay, the Golden Gate Bridge (a short 5-10 minutes down HWY 101), and Mt. Tam, (3) excellent schools, (4) pleasant weather, (4) a mellow, laid back ambiance, (5) a town square unlike any other in Marin (you have to go to the town of Sonoma for anything like it), (6) diverse social events (think Mill Valley Film Festival & The Dipsea Race), (7) lots of good restaurants, and (8) excellent shopping choices, including non-gentrified, family-owned boutiques and shops of all kinds.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. I also have a fixer listed in Homestead Valley that is a super value play, priced at $699,000 (3 Beds/3 Baths, 14,000 sq. ft. lot backing Molino Park). If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (June 2009 Home Sales Update)

June 14, 2009

Readers of my monthly reports on Mill Valley, CA. are well aware of my love for Mill Valley. And what’s not to like? For starters: (1) A quick and easy commute to San Francisco, (2) often spectacular views of the Bay, the Golden Gate Bridge (a short 5-10 minutes down HWY 101), and Mt. Tam, (3) excellent schools, (4) pleasant weather, (4) a mellow, laid back ambiance, (5) a town square unlike any other in Marin (you have to go to the town of Sonoma for anything like it), (6) diverse social events (think Mill Valley Film Festival & The Dipsea Race), (7) lots of good restaurants, and (8) excellent shopping choices, including non-gentrified, family-owned boutiques and shops of all kinds. Along with all this, there is serious value right here, right now. This is true for every price band in Mill Valley. Note to buyers: write offers! A closed mouth does not get fed. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

The above graph charts asking prices and shows that since November 2007 prices have slid from about $740 per square foot to about $610. While some buyers believe prices may slip a bit more, most understand that while interest rates have risen 70 basis points in the past 3 weeks, they are still very low and that mortgage math punishes those who don’t lock in at or near the lowest rate possible. For example, if prices dip another 5% and interest rates go up just 1%, the monthly payment would increase dramatically for an $800K home with 20% down (call me for exact numbers relating to a given situation). 

Based on last month’s sales total of 17 (we had 14 sales in April), we currently have an overall inventory of homes (AR) sufficient to last a bit more than 8.35 months in Mill Valley, CA (down from 11 months last month). Overall, the number of homes for sale rose to 142 (way up from 90 in February 2009). The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is hovering at 12. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) remains feeble with 3 sales last month and another 3 currently in escrow. 

Price Range

Total Active Homes

Pending Listings

Up to $800K

19 (up 4)

27%

$800K - $1 mil.

26 (up 3)

28%

$1 mil. - 1.5 mil.

42 (up 1)

14%

$1.5 mil. - $2 mil.

20 (down 1)

20%

$2 mil. - $4 mil.

30 (up 1)

9%

$4 mil. & Up

5 (up 1) 

0% 

Mill Valley’s 17 sales from May 2009 gave rise to the following averages: 64 days on the market; an average price of $1.167 million; and about 2,183 sq. ft. (or about $528 per sq. ft.). Homes in Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, Country Club, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. 

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. I also have a fixer listed in Homestead Valley that is a super value play, priced at $699,800 (3 Beds/3 Baths, 14,000 sq. ft. lot backing Molino Park). If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (May 2009 Home Sales Update)

May 16, 2009

We are consistently asked by our clients (sellers), “when will our markets return to normal?” We formed our definition of a normal Marin County market in our Q3 2008 Luxury Newsletter (call us for a copy) only to be followed by the October ’08 stock market meltdown. A normal Mill Valley market over the past ten years has been an annual average of 377 single family homes sold (31 per month). For the past six months the total has been 78 (16 per month). The number of units sold is off roughly 50%. Without closings we have limited comparables to make investment decisions. We are all looking for recent closings to benchmark property values. In the stock market we know CitiGroup Inc. will not soon return to its September 2008 value of $25 per share. In turn, we do not expect Mill Valley real estate to return to early – mid 2008 values. The question is what will the going forward adjustment be? To address “the adjustment” we need to focus neighborhood-by-neighborhood and client-by-client. It is our feeling that Mill Valley, CA closings in December 2008 – April 2009 represent comparables based on sellers that had to sell, and quickly, or sellers that thought the market would fall faster in the Spring ’09 and elected to set the comparables vs. having them used against them.

In an attempt to quantify the “adjustment” we reviewed the new list prices vs. previous selling prices of six Mill Valley homes sold in late 2007 thru early 2008 and again currently active. The six properties ranged in price from $1.2 million to $3.3 million. On average the current list prices are 6% lower than their 2007 – 2008 closing prices. Four are over 10% below. The two homes over $3 million are 13% and 16% below their previous closing prices. None of the homes are in contract. Assuming these homes ultimately go into contract 10% below asking, we can extrapolate a downward shift in the Mill Valley market from late 2007 to today between 16% - 25%.
 
Current Mill Valley inventory (96 listings over $1 million) ranges in pricing from $1 million to $6.5 million and from $328 - $1,305 per square foot. Our review last week illustrated average price per square foot @ $595 for homes from $1 to $2.5 million, $779 from $2.5 to $3.5 million, $935 from $3.5 to $5 million and $1,155 over $5 million. It is very important to note that price per square foot is only one measure and does not take into account, location, noise, sun, condition of property, etc.
 
On the buyer side we are noticing a shift in the selection and valuation of homes. From 1998 – 2008 buyers place a high “prestige” value on certain Mill Valley neighborhoods and were very focused on “I want to live in Sycamore Park”. Now we see buyers seeking “value”. They are comparing like priced listings in multiple Marin communities and seeing what value they can get for their dollar. Essentially, a buyer shift in focus from “prestige” to “value”.  Sellers must be priced for perceived value.
 
Two other clear messages from buyers are:  
1.       A trend away from major remodels. This is likely a result of the changing credit markets and the loss of capital buyers experienced in the stock market meltdown.  
2.       A lack of willingness to write an offer on a property that is not priced in appropriate “strike zone”. Buyers seem to wait for appropriate pricing before coming forward with an offer vs. writing a low, more competitive offer. The rationale seems to be, “what if I write an offer and the seller accepts it? We will clearly have paid too much”. 3 – 5 counter offers are not unusual. Although buyers are more and more inclined to walk away if they don’t get their price.
 
These dynamics are not easy to anticipate much less manage.  We manage these issues every day. Only closings and comparables will add clarity and consistency.
Our advice to sellers:
1.       If you do not need to sell, this will not be the time in the market to maximize value. While we feel the “bottom is forming”, we are not projecting high-single digit year-over-year appreciation until we see the number of Mill Valley homes closed exceed the ten year historical rate of 377+ per year.
2.       Be informed; tour the competition in your price range in Mill Valley and the rest of Southern and Central Marin.
3.       Be realistic about your asking price. Serious buyers are generally represented by talented, knowledgeable agents with access to all the same data.
4.       If you are selling in Spring ’09, time on the market is not your friend. The “perfect home” for the “right price” should trade in its first 30 days.
 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

The median price per square foot has dipped to about $575 per sq. ft. (which is down from well over $800 in mid-2007). While some buyers believe prices may slip a bit more, as noted above, most appreciate the fact that interest rates are very appealing. Indeed, mortgage math punishes those who don’t lock in at or near the lowest rate possible. For example, if prices dip another 5% and interest rates go up just 1%, the monthly payment would increase rather significantly for an $800K home with 20% down (call me for exact numbers relating to a given situation). 

Down from April 2009, the percentage of homes in escrow under $800,000 slipped to 21%. I have a fixer listed in Homestead Valley that is a super value play, priced at $768,800 (3 Beds/3 Baths, 14,000 sq. ft. lot backing Molino Park). If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Based on last month’s sales total of 14 (we had 11 sales in March), we currently have an overall inventory of homes (AR) sufficient to last a bit more than 11 months in Mill Valley, CA.

Overall, the number of homes for sale rose to 133 (way up from 90 in February). The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is hovering at 1. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) seems to be improving as we have 5 such homes currently in escrow to go along with a couple of sales last month. 

Price Range

Total Active Homes

Pending Listings

Up to $800K

15 (up 4)

21%

$800K - $1 mil.

23 (down 4)

30%

$1 mil. - 1.5 mil.

41 (up 7)

16%

$1.5 mil. - $2 mil.

21 (up 6)

10%

$2 mil. - $4 mil.

29 (up 10)

18%

$4 mil. & Up

4 (up 1) 

0% 

Of the 14 sales to close escrow in April 2009, they averaged 64 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.41 million with about 2,394 sq. ft. (or about $575 per sq. ft.). Homes in Homestead Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

p.s. I currently have a couple potential sellers waiting in the wings with homes not on the MLS, please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs.

Mill Valley CA Real Estate Market Report (April 2009 Home Sales Update)

April 16, 2009

Readers of my monthly reports on Mill Valley, CA. are well aware of my love for Mill Valley. They are also among the most informed consumers of Marin real estate (why else would they be reading my blog?). As such, despite my bias favoring Mill Valley, these consumers KNOW that Mill Valley presents serious value — right here, right now. This is true for every price band. 

Here are some numbers to contemplate: (1) just eleven homes sold in Mill Valley last month — a slow market; (2) of the eleven homes that sold, four were priced under $800K; (3) the bread-and-butter price band is experiencing an abysmal 8% to 13% escrow rate; (4) the current absorption rate (AR) for homes in Mill Valley’s sweet spot (homes priced between $1 million and $2 million) is an amazingly high 17.25 months. 

Note to buyers: write offers! A closed mouth does not get fed. Ask and you shall receive. Life happens and people have to sell their homes. Last night on Larry King, Donald Trump said that he has never seen a window of opportunity like this one and that this is the best time to buy real estate he has ever seen. Whatever you think of the source, can you really disagree? Don’t have a down payment? If not, do what it takes and put one together. Interest rates will shoot up at some point, evaporating affordability.

If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.  

For several months my Mill Valley, CA, real estate report has noted that the market “is strangely out of sync,” buyers “are taking a few pitches to see what happens,” and I have also aired my suspicions about “undercover buyers” who are ready to buy and want to buy the “right” home. More than ever, I believe this is all true. And all I can say is “write offers.” 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

As evidenced by the above graph, The median price per square foot has dipped to about $625 per sq. ft. (which is down from well over $800 in mid-2007). While some buyers believe prices may slip a bit more, as noted above, most appreciate the fact that interest rates are very appealing. Indeed, mortgage math punishes those who don’t lock in at or near the lowest rate possible. For example, if prices dip another 5% and interest rates go up just 1%, the monthly payment would increase rather significantly for an $800K home with 20% down (call me for exact numbers relating to a given situation). 

Down from March 2009, the percentage of homes in escrow under $800,000 slipped to 26% (it had been as low as 15% in November 2008). I have a fixer listed in Homestead Valley that is a super value play (3 Beds/3 Baths, 14,000 sq. ft. lot backing Molino Park).

Based on last month’s sales total of eleven, we currently have an overall inventory of homes (AR) sufficient to last about 12 months in Mill Valley, CA.  Overall, the number of homes for sale rose to 122 (way up from 90 a month ago). The number of “bead and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is a mere 9 — (which is low, but there were just 3 in escrow in February 2009). Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up remains drowsy — just a single luxury home closed last month, but there are three currently in escrow. 

Price Range

Total Active Homes

Pending Listings

Up to $750K

14 (up 6)

26%

$750K - $1 mil.

20 (down 7)

20%

$1 mil. - 1.5 mil.

40 (up 7)

9%

$1.5 mil. - $2 mil.

22 (up 7)

8%

$2 mil. - $4 mil.

21 (up 2)

13%

$4 mil. & Up

4 (up 1) 

0% 

Of the 11 sales to close escrow in March 2009, they averaged 119 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.25 million with about 2,047 sq. ft. (or about $645 per sq. ft.). Homes in Homestead Valley, Sycamore Park, Middle Ridge, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

p.s. I currently have a couple potential sellers waiting in the wings with homes not on the MLS, please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs.

Marin Luxury Real Estate (March 2009)

March 17, 2009

While sluggishness has trickled-up into the luxury real estate market in Marin, CA., there is legitimate cause for optimism in coming months. For example, there were 161 new escrows opened in Marin County in February 2009. While the majority of these (68%) were value plays in Novato and San Rafael, it was the highest level seen since August 2008 and was 19% higher than February 2008–encouraging news since we had just 19 “working days” last month. Moreover, the first 2 weeks of March 2009, resulted in 116 opened escrows. In March 2008, we saw just 98 homes go into escrow. That is an increase of 18% over last year. Again, encouraging. For a detailed accounting of national trends, click here for the March 2009 Market Report from Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, e-mail me. 

It is clear to me that with minimal social proof, buyers will return to the market and pent-up demand will create a surge in sales figures. The $8,000 no-strings-attached credit from the government (for first time home buyers, loosely defined as someone who has not owned a home for the past 3 years and meets income limitations), the increased conforming loan limit (set to go back up to $729,750 some time in April 2009), and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board is a recipe for sales. I should also note that with the increased conforming loan amount, buyers with 25% down (and who otherwise qualify) will be able to obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of a little over $1.6 million.

[Click here for the rest of the article, courtesy of NorthBayRE.com].