The Mill Valley real estate market remains predictably unpredictable — after logging 17 sales in May 2009, we had a robust 29 sales in June 2009. Typically, sales slow down as Summer begins and families focus more on vacations and outside activities. That slowdown will be reflected in July sales numbers. Nonetheless, there is serious value in Mill Valley right here, right now. This is true for every price band. Note to buyers: write offers! A closed mouth does not get fed. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.

The above chart tracks asking prices and shows that since November 2007 prices have slid from about $740 per square foot to about $615. As I have noted in market updates relating to other towns in Marin, asking prices have flattened out over the past 6 weeks. It will be interesting to see if this is a leading indicator of increased sales prices that carries into the Fall.

Based on last month’s sales total of 29, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last a bit more than 4.6 months. This a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate the month before, which stood at well over 8 months. Indeed, along with the larger number of sales, lots of inventory was removed from the market for the Summer and the number of homes for sale dropped to 134.

Most activity in Mill Valley is occurring in the sub $1 million price bands, which can be characterized as neutral markets, favoring neither buyers nor sellers. The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is hovering at a low 14% (about the same as last month). Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) saw some meaningful activity with 4 sales last month (including an off market sale for $5 million) and another 3 currently in escrow.

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	15 (down 4)	32%
$800K – $1 mil.	21 (down 5)	38%
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.	39 (down 3)	15%
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.	18 (down 2)	14%
$2 mil. – $4 mil.	29 (down 1)	3%
$4 mil. & Up	4 (down 1)	0%

Mill Valley’s 29 sales from June 2009 gave rise to the following averages: 98 days on the market; an average price of $1.47 million; and about 2,485 sq. ft. (or about $595 per sq. ft.). Homes in Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, Country Club, Homestead Valley, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Readers of my monthly reports on Mill Valley, CA. are well aware of my love for Mill Valley. And what’s not to like? For starters: (1) A quick and easy commute to San Francisco, (2) often spectacular views of the Bay, the Golden Gate Bridge (a short 5-10 minutes down HWY 101), and Mt. Tam, (3) excellent schools, (4) pleasant weather, (4) a mellow, laid back ambiance, (5) a town square unlike any other in Marin (you have to go to the town of Sonoma for anything like it), (6) diverse social events (think Mill Valley Film Festival & The Dipsea Race), (7) lots of good restaurants, and (8) excellent shopping choices, including non-gentrified, family-owned boutiques and shops of all kinds.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. I also have a fixer listed in Homestead Valley that is a super value play, priced at $699,000 (3 Beds/3 Baths, 14,000 sq. ft. lot backing Molino Park). If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Like many of us, Mill Valley buyers are doing all they can to busy themselves in an effort to avoid being confronted with the dismal stock market results over the past few weeks. On the bright side, from a real estate perspective, the massive retrenchment taking place on the The Street is resulting in many folks liquidating those assets and looking to place them into an attractive alternative. And as luck would have it, Marin real estate provides a good outlet for these investment dollars. Yet, the market in Mill Valley does not yet reflect the expected uptick in sales numbers at the low end. I would expect that at least 50% of homes under $800,000 in Mill Valley would be in escrow, but that is not the case.

Overall, Mill Valley’s real estate market is cruising through the Autumn with little momentum. The market remains one favoring flexible buyers intent on making sacrifices in order to obtain value. Customarily for this time of year, sellers who don’t need to sell will now wait for the promise of the new year. Yet, I expect this Winter we will see many of the so-called “undercover buyers” (e.g., financially stable people waiting for the “right time” to buy) writing strong offers in an effort to take advantage of the confluence of two factors: (1) the apparent nadir of the market in general; and (2) the Wintertime’s seasonal leverage which favors buyers. I am talking with lots people who fit this profile. Although prices have not receded in Mill Valley quite like those of Novato (click HERE for Novato101.com’s market analysis for November 2008), these “undercover buyers” are eagerly investigating their options.   

Continuing a trend first noted in my September 2008, we are actually seeing a reduction in the percentage of entry level homes in escrow across the board. Interestingly, even the entry level is down to just 15% of homes in escrow (down from 53% in July 2008 and 20% in September 2008). Overall, the number of homes for sale in Mill Valley is down to 101. The vast majority of homes are priced between $1 million to $2 million and just 9 of those homes are currently in escrow. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) has clearly entered into an early hibernation this year as buyers are stepping back from major purchases during these unsettled economic times. Zero luxury homes are in escrow at the time of this writing–a great environment for portfolio buyers.

 

Mill Valley homes that sold during the past month averaged 98 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.443 million and including about 2,185 sq. ft. (about $652 per sq. ft).      

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	11 (down 1)	15%
$800K – $1 mil.	15 (up 3)	12%
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.	34 (down	11%
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.	16 (down 12)	20%
$2 mil. – $4 mil.	22 (up 4)	0%
$4 mil. & Up	4 (up 2)	0%

 

As our Summer selling season wears on, Mill Valley’s real estate market has sustained itself nicely. Across the board, this year has simply seen less inventory than the past few years as sellers have decided to wait for the real estate market to improve (although sales in Mill Valley are strong despite the media characterizations).

 

Home sales are strong because everyone loves Mill Valley. And here are a couple of reasons why: (1) A quick and easy commute to San Francisco, (2) often spectacular views of the Bay and Mt. Tam, (3) excellent schools, (4) pleasant weather, (4) a mellow, laid back ambiance, (5) a town square unlike any other in Marin (you have to go to the town of Sonoma for anything like it), (6) diverse social events (think Mill Valley Film Festival), (7) lots of good restaurants, (8) excellent shopping choices, including non-gentrified, family-owned boutiques and shops of all kinds, and (9) virtually unlimited access to nature. 

 

This is not news to anyone who follows my monthly reports. Mill Valley is simply one of the most desirable communities in Marin and its sales and prices reflect that fact.

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	6 (no change)	53%
$800K – $1 mil.	17 (up 2)	22%
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.	40 (down 3)	18%
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.	19 (no change)	9%
$2 mil. – $4 mil.	17 (down 4)	23%
$4 mil. & Up	3 (up 1)	0%

 

Homes in Boyle Park, Middle Ridge, Homestead Valley and Cascade Canyon continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@NorthBayRE.com.

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	6 (down 3)	57%
$800K – $1 mil.	15 (down 2)	26%
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.	43 (up 12)	9%
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.	19 (down 7)	24%
$2 mil. – $4 mil.	21 (down 7)	25%
$4 mil. & Up	3 (up 1)	0%

Homes in Sycamore Park, Sunnyside, Kite Hill, Boyle Park, and Cascade Canyon continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@NorthBayRE.com.