Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (February 2010 Home Sales Update)
February 14, 2010
The number of home sales in the Mill Valley, California real estate market slipped to 16 listings sold, compared with 27 in December 2009. Based on last month’s total, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last 3.7 months (note that several homes came on the market very recently). This is a big reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months. Indeed, the number of homes for sale in Mill Valley remains very low at 63. Meanwhile, asking prices have held steady over the past quarter and stand now at about $605 per square foot.

The above graph tracks sales prices vs. listing prices over the past 2 years in Mill Valley for homes under $2 million. While the median sales price is down 19%, the median asking price is down just 3%. Meanwhile, for homes over $2 million, the median asking price has dipped 11%, while median sales prices have dipped about 30%. We still believe that there are many “real buyers” out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy. Certainly, the media’s negative feedback loop seems to have reversed itself as most mainstream economy-related articles seem to be more positive in nature. Certainly, investors are “flipping” homes again! Mill Valley’s entry level price band (under $800,000) is fairly strong with 39% of homes currently in escrow. Below is a table detailing the number of homes in escrow in each price band:
|
Price Range |
Total Active Homes |
Pending Listings |
|
Up to $800K |
14 (up 4) |
39% |
|
$800K - $1 mil. |
10 (down 1) |
41% |
|
$1 mil. - 1.5 mil. |
16 (up 1) |
30% |
|
$1.5 mil. - $2 mil. |
14 (same) |
24% |
|
$2 mil. & Up |
15 (up 2) |
17% |
Mill Valley’s 16 sales in January 2010 gave rise to the following averages: 88 days on the market; an average price of $1,191,488; and about 2,298 sq. ft. (or about $535 per sq. ft.).
Homes in Tam Valley, Strawberry, Sycamore Park, and Country Club generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.
p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service. Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin | Pacific Union International.
Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (October 2009 Home Sales Update)
October 16, 2009
The good new is that it seems the media has turned a corner on its reporting of the U.S. and worldwide economies, as well as the housing market. Positive press coverage has permeated all forms of media and is certain to change the tide, although it will take time. Significantly, San Francisco agents are reporting a significant surge in sales and prices. We know from past experience, that once San Francisco recovers, surrounding communities recover in a geo-concentrically expanding fashion.
Yet, the Mill Valley, CA. real estate market continues to limp along, offering hope of recovery, but not fully reaching the plateau (or nadir, as it were). Pardon the inevitable mixed metaphors, but it seems the real estate market is like an elite athlete with an ankle sprain, constantly at risk of further injury or re-aggravation. Our low expectations for September were fulfilled as we had just 21 home sales — same as in July and August 2009.
While is seemed that prices had gathered traction after a slippery first half of the year, last month’s price per square foot of homes sold dipped to $529 — note that the graph below tracks asking prices and the average price per square foot for homes on the market is holding steady at about $615. We have been waiting to see whether this flattening out of asking prices would carry over into the sales prices of homes trading this Fall and Winter and it appears the answer in “no.”
Based on last month’s sales total of 21, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last a bit more than 5.67 months (virtually the same as August 2009) — this is called the absorption rate. This is still a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months. The number of homes in escrow is also virtually the same as last month. We think there are many real buyers out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy — we don’t know what that sign will be (there are likely to be many “signs”), but we feel it will likely come soon.
As with Marin overall, the most active segment is the sub $1 million price bands, which can be characterized as neutral markets, favoring neither buyers nor sellers. Well over half of last month’s sales were under $1 million. The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is up from last month to about 20%. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) saw strong activity last month (5 sales) — and another 9 such homes are in escrow.
|
Price Range |
Total Active Homes |
Pending Listings |
|
Up to $800K |
17 (same) |
48% |
|
$800K - $1 mil. |
19 (up 1) |
21% |
|
$1 mil. - 1.5 mil. |
35 (down 5) |
19% |
|
$1.5 mil. - $2 mil. |
19 (up 1) |
17% |
|
$2 mil. - $4 mil. |
30 (same) |
14% |
|
$4 mil. & Up |
5 (up 1) |
0% |
Mill Valley’s 21 sales from September 2009 gave rise to the following averages: 66 days on the market; an average price of $1,156,667; and about 2,165 sq. ft. (or about $529 per sq. ft.).
Homes in Tam Valley, Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, and Country Club generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.
p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service. Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin and Pacific Union International.
Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (August 2009 Home Sales Update)
August 13, 2009
The Mill Valley, CA. real estate market remains predictably unpredictable — after just 17 sales in May 2009, we had a robust 29 sales in June 2009, followed by 22 sales in July 2009. As I noted in last month’s report, the decline in sales numbers this month was expected as families focus more on vacations and outside activities. And September will bring even fewer home sales, along with a moderate rise in inventory and increased buyer activity.
Over the past quarter in much of Marin County, it has become apparent that asking prices have halted their downward spiral. As is evident in the graph below, which tracks the median price per square foot (down from $740 to $615), in Mid-June 2009 prices flattened out in Mill Valley. It will be interesting to see whether this flattening out carries over into the sales prices of homes trading this Fall and Winter.
|
Price Range |
Total Active Homes |
Pending Listings |
|
Up to $800K |
17 (up 2) |
37% |
|
$800K - $1 mil. |
18 (down 3) |
36% |
|
$1 mil. - 1.5 mil. |
40 (up 1) |
18% |
|
$1.5 mil. - $2 mil. |
18 (no change) |
0% |
|
$2 mil. - $4 mil. |
30 (down 1) |
17% |
|
$4 mil. & Up |
4 (no change) |
0% |
Mill Valley’s 22 sales from July 2009 gave rise to the following averages: 86 days on the market; an average price of $963,591; and about 1,844 sq. ft. (or about $556 per sq. ft.). Homes in Tam Valley, Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, Country Club, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.
Readers of my monthly reports on Mill Valley, CA. are well aware of my love for Mill Valley. And what’s not to like? For starters: (1) A quick and easy commute to San Francisco, (2) often spectacular views of the Bay, the Golden Gate Bridge (a short 5-10 minutes down HWY 101), and Mt. Tam, (3) excellent schools, (4) pleasant weather, (4) a mellow, laid back ambiance, (5) a town square unlike any other in Marin (you have to go to the town of Sonoma for anything like it), (6) diverse social events (think Mill Valley Film Festival & The Dipsea Race), (7) lots of good restaurants, and (8) excellent shopping choices, including non-gentrified, family-owned boutiques and shops of all kinds.
p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (July 2009 Home Sales Update)
July 18, 2009
Based on last month’s sales total of 29, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last a bit more than 4.6 months. This a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate the month before, which stood at well over 8 months. Indeed, along with the larger number of sales, lots of inventory was removed from the market for the Summer and the number of homes for sale dropped to 134.
Most activity in Mill Valley is occurring in the sub $1 million price bands, which can be characterized as neutral markets, favoring neither buyers nor sellers. The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is hovering at a low 14% (about the same as last month). Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) saw some meaningful activity with 4 sales last month (including an off market sale for $5 million) and another 3 currently in escrow.
|
Price Range |
Total Active Homes |
Pending Listings |
|
Up to $800K |
15 (down 4) |
32% |
|
$800K - $1 mil. |
21 (down 5) |
38% |
|
$1 mil. - 1.5 mil. |
39 (down 3) |
15% |
|
$1.5 mil. - $2 mil. |
18 (down 2) |
14% |
|
$2 mil. - $4 mil. |
29 (down 1) |
3% |
|
$4 mil. & Up |
4 (down 1) |
0% |
Mill Valley’s 29 sales from June 2009 gave rise to the following averages: 98 days on the market; an average price of $1.47 million; and about 2,485 sq. ft. (or about $595 per sq. ft.). Homes in Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, Country Club, Homestead Valley, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.
Readers of my monthly reports on Mill Valley, CA. are well aware of my love for Mill Valley. And what’s not to like? For starters: (1) A quick and easy commute to San Francisco, (2) often spectacular views of the Bay, the Golden Gate Bridge (a short 5-10 minutes down HWY 101), and Mt. Tam, (3) excellent schools, (4) pleasant weather, (4) a mellow, laid back ambiance, (5) a town square unlike any other in Marin (you have to go to the town of Sonoma for anything like it), (6) diverse social events (think Mill Valley Film Festival & The Dipsea Race), (7) lots of good restaurants, and (8) excellent shopping choices, including non-gentrified, family-owned boutiques and shops of all kinds.
p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. I also have a fixer listed in Homestead Valley that is a super value play, priced at $699,000 (3 Beds/3 Baths, 14,000 sq. ft. lot backing Molino Park). If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
Mill Valley CA Real Estate Market Report (April 2009 Home Sales Update)
April 16, 2009
Readers of my monthly reports on Mill Valley, CA. are well aware of my love for Mill Valley. They are also among the most informed consumers of Marin real estate (why else would they be reading my blog?). As such, despite my bias favoring Mill Valley, these consumers KNOW that Mill Valley presents serious value — right here, right now. This is true for every price band.
Here are some numbers to contemplate: (1) just eleven homes sold in Mill Valley last month — a slow market; (2) of the eleven homes that sold, four were priced under $800K; (3) the bread-and-butter price band is experiencing an abysmal 8% to 13% escrow rate; (4) the current absorption rate (AR) for homes in Mill Valley’s sweet spot (homes priced between $1 million and $2 million) is an amazingly high 17.25 months.
Note to buyers: write offers! A closed mouth does not get fed. Ask and you shall receive. Life happens and people have to sell their homes. Last night on Larry King, Donald Trump said that he has never seen a window of opportunity like this one and that this is the best time to buy real estate he has ever seen. Whatever you think of the source, can you really disagree? Don’t have a down payment? If not, do what it takes and put one together. Interest rates will shoot up at some point, evaporating affordability.
If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.
For several months my Mill Valley, CA, real estate report has noted that the market “is strangely out of sync,” buyers “are taking a few pitches to see what happens,” and I have also aired my suspicions about “undercover buyers” who are ready to buy and want to buy the “right” home. More than ever, I believe this is all true. And all I can say is “write offers.”
As evidenced by the above graph, The median price per square foot has dipped to about $625 per sq. ft. (which is down from well over $800 in mid-2007). While some buyers believe prices may slip a bit more, as noted above, most appreciate the fact that interest rates are very appealing. Indeed, mortgage math punishes those who don’t lock in at or near the lowest rate possible. For example, if prices dip another 5% and interest rates go up just 1%, the monthly payment would increase rather significantly for an $800K home with 20% down (call me for exact numbers relating to a given situation).
Down from March 2009, the percentage of homes in escrow under $800,000 slipped to 26% (it had been as low as 15% in November 2008). I have a fixer listed in Homestead Valley that is a super value play (3 Beds/3 Baths, 14,000 sq. ft. lot backing Molino Park).
Based on last month’s sales total of eleven, we currently have an overall inventory of homes (AR) sufficient to last about 12 months in Mill Valley, CA. Overall, the number of homes for sale rose to 122 (way up from 90 a month ago). The number of “bead and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is a mere 9 — (which is low, but there were just 3 in escrow in February 2009). Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up remains drowsy — just a single luxury home closed last month, but there are three currently in escrow.
|
Price Range |
Total Active Homes |
Pending Listings |
|
Up to $750K |
14 (up 6) |
26% |
|
$750K - $1 mil. |
20 (down 7) |
20% |
|
$1 mil. - 1.5 mil. |
40 (up 7) |
9% |
|
$1.5 mil. - $2 mil. |
22 (up 7) |
8% |
|
$2 mil. - $4 mil. |
21 (up 2) |
13% |
|
$4 mil. & Up |
4 (up 1) |
0% |
Of the 11 sales to close escrow in March 2009, they averaged 119 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.25 million with about 2,047 sq. ft. (or about $645 per sq. ft.). Homes in Homestead Valley, Sycamore Park, Middle Ridge, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
p.s. I currently have a couple potential sellers waiting in the wings with homes not on the MLS, please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs.
Mill Valley Neighborhoods
September 3, 2008
While the prevailing ethos of Mill Valley can be found in all corners, its various neighborhoods each offer something unique.
