Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (January 2010 Home Sales Update)

The number of home sales in the Mill Valley, California real estate market rose again in December 2009 — 27 listings sold, compared with 24 in November. Based on last month’s total, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last 1.96 months! This is a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months. Indeed, the number of homes for sale in Mill Valley is an extraordinarily low 53. Meanwhile, asking prices have held steady over the past quarter and stand now at about $610 per square foot. It remains to be seen whether this rise will translate into higher sales prices.

We still beleive that there are many “real buyers” out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy. Certainly, the negative feedback loop supplied by the media has turned the corner — indeed, investors are “flipping” homes again! Mill Valley’s low end market (under $800,000) is competitive with 33% of homes in escrow and that fact bodes well. Below is a table detailing the number of homes in escrow in each price band:

Homes in Tam Valley, Strawberry, Sycamore Park, and Country Club generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service. Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin | Pacific Union International.

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (December 2009 Home Sales Update)

The number of home sales in the Mill Valley, California real estate market rose 20% in November 2009 — that is a total of 24 listings sold. Based on last month’s total, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last 3.1 months (significantly lower than last month) — this is called the absorption rate. This is a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months. Indeed, the number of homes for sale in Mill Valley is a very low 75, typical for this time of year. Meanwhile, asking prices have seemed to stiffen over the past quarter. The graph below tracks asking prices; the average price per square foot for homes currently on the market is rising — approximately $622 per square foot. It remains to be seen whether this rise will translate into higher sales prices.

While the number of homes in escrow is down from last month, that is typical this time of year as buyers and sellers alike are focused on surviving the holiday season. We still think there are many real buyers out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy — we don’t know what that sign will be (there are likely to be many “signs”), but we feel it will likely come soon. Numerous newspaper articles have run recently, pointing to the exceptional opportunities out there right now for buyers — indeed, we are starting to hear investors talk about “flipping” homes again!

In fact, the percentage of homes in escrow remains strong at 44% in the lowest price band (under $800,000). This indicates that Mill Valley’s low end market is competitive and that fact bodes well. In Novato, for example, we believe the bottom began to form in April and May 2009 when the low end market began to see escrow ratios over 50% (Novato’s entry level price band has since reached over 80% of homes in escrow in what has become a very tight market). Since then, Novato’s overall market has become increasingly hotter across all price bands. I believe if Mill Valley follows suit, we will see a marked increase in sales over the next few months, particularly if San Francisco firms begin providing bonuses again in the New Year (Click HERE). Remember, last year, there were no bonuses and as a result (at least in part), we had a flat-lining market for the first 5 months of the year.

Below is a graph detailing the number of homes in escrow in each price band:

Homes in Tam Valley, Strawberry, Sycamore Park, and Country Club generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service. Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin | Pacific Union International.

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (November 2009 Home Sales Update)

We know from past experience that in down cycles, once the San Francisco housing market recovers, there is a domino effect on surrounding communities. Accordingly, in our current cycle, we believe that our best leading indicator regarding a healthy, appreciating market (particularly in Southern Marin) will be the home sales environment in San Francisco. And there can be no doubt that the San Francisco market has improved dramatically in recent months. Additionally, as the banking institutions regain their footing and again provide bonuses to their employees, we will also see a surge in luxury home sales. In fact, if bonuses are significant and broad-based, I predict a very strong luxury sales market early in 2010 as buyers snap up the many “values” out there in the luxury and ultra-luxury sectors.

Mill Valley will be first in line to benefit from this influx of local income. Meanwhile, however, the number of homes sold remains low. In October, we had just 20 home sales — virtually the same as in July, August, and September 2009. Many believe that the low number of sales is due in large part to a lack of “sexy inventory.”  And in fact, turnkey homes that are priced competitively and located in desirable areas sell FAST.  Meanwhile, homes with “challenges” in regard to location, condition, or price are simply not selling.

Sales prices seem to have gathered traction after a slippery first half of the year, last month’s price per square foot of homes sold was $565 (home sales prices have held steady in this general price per square foot range for months now). Of course, price per square foot is an often misleading indicator as applied to individual homes for several reasons (e.g., condition, location, usable yard space, and the size of the home — the larger the home, the lower the price per square foot). Indeed, a nice home in Sycamore Park may sell for $750-$800 per square foot. It all depends on the various factors in play.

Note that the graph below tracks asking prices and the average price per square foot for homes on the market is rising. It is currently approximately $620 per square foot. It remains to be seen whether this rise will translate into higher sales prices.

Based on last month’s sales total of 20, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last 5.3 months (slightly lower than last month) — this is called the absorption rate. This is still a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months.

The number of homes in escrow is up by about 11% from last month. We think there are many real buyers out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy — we don’t know what that sign will be (there are likely to be many “signs”), but we feel it will likely come soon.

In fact, the percentage of homes in escrow has risen to 55% in the bottom price band (under $800,000). This indicates that Mill Valley’s low end market is becoming very competitive and that fact bodes well. In Novato, for example, we believe the bottom began to form in April 2009 when it’s low end market began to see escrow ratios over 50% (Novato’s entry level price band has since reached over 80% of homes in escrow in what has become a very tight market). Since then, Novato’s overall market has become increasingly hotter across all price bands. I believe if Mill Valley follows suit, we will see a marked increase in sales over the next few months, particularly if San Francisco firms begin providing bonuses again in the New Year. Remember, last year, there were no bonuses and as a result (at least in part), we had a flat-lining market for the first 5 months of the year.

Below is a graph detailing the number of homes in escrow in each price band:

Homes in Tam Valley, Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, and Country Club generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service. Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin and Pacific Union International.

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (October 2009 Home Sales Update)

The good new is that it seems the media has turned a corner on its reporting of the U.S. and worldwide economies, as well as the housing market. Positive press coverage has permeated all forms of media and is certain to change the tide, although it will take time. Significantly, San Francisco agents are reporting a significant surge in sales and prices. We know from past experience, that once San Francisco recovers, surrounding communities recover in a geo-concentrically expanding fashion.

Yet, the Mill Valley, CA. real estate market continues to limp along, offering hope of recovery, but not fully reaching the plateau (or nadir, as it were). Pardon the inevitable mixed metaphors, but it seems the real estate market is like an elite athlete with an ankle sprain, constantly at risk of further injury or re-aggravation. Our low expectations for September were fulfilled as we had just 21 home sales — same as in July and August 2009.

While is seemed that prices had gathered traction after a slippery first half of the year, last month’s price per square foot of homes sold dipped to $529 — note that the graph below tracks asking prices and the average price per square foot for homes on the market is holding steady at about $615. We have been waiting to see whether this flattening out of asking prices would carry over into the sales prices of homes trading this Fall and Winter and it appears the answer in “no.”

Based on last month’s sales total of 21, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last a bit more than 5.67 months (virtually the same as August 2009) — this is called the absorption rate. This is still a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months. The number of homes in escrow is also virtually the same as last month. We think there are many real buyers out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy — we don’t know what that sign will be (there are likely to be many “signs”), but we feel it will likely come soon.

As with Marin overall, the most active segment is the sub $1 million price bands, which can be characterized as neutral markets, favoring neither buyers nor sellers. Well over half of last month’s sales were under $1 million. The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is up from last month to about 20%. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) saw strong activity last month (5 sales) — and another 9 such homes are in escrow.

Homes in Tam Valley, Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, and Country Club generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service. Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin and Pacific Union International.

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (September 2009 Home Sales Update)

The Mill Valley, CA. real estate market fulfilled low expectations in August 2009 with 22 sales — same as in July 2009. It has become apparent over the past several months that asking prices have largely halted their downward spiral. As is evident in the graph below, which tracks the median price per square foot (down from $740 to $612), in Mid-June prices flattened out in Mill Valley and have more or less remained stable. It will be interesting to see whether this flattening out carries over into the sales prices of homes trading this Fall and Winter.

Based on last month’s sales total of 22, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last a bit more than 5.5 months (virtually the same as August 2009) — this is called the absorption rate. This is still a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months. The number of homes in escrow is also up by over ten percent from last month, which suggests that sales activity will increase in the late Fall and into the Winter months (as is normal for Mill Valley). We think there are many real buyers out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy — we don’t know what that sign will be (there are likely to be many “signs”), but we feel it will likely come soon.

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (June 2009 Home Sales Update)

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (May 2009 Home Sales Update)

We are consistently asked by our clients (sellers), “when will our markets return to normal?” We formed our definition of a normal Marin County market in our Q3 2008 Luxury Newsletter (call us for a copy) only to be followed by the October ’08 stock market meltdown. A normal Mill Valley market over the past ten years has been an annual average of 377 single family homes sold (31 per month). For the past six months the total has been 78 (16 per month). The number of units sold is off roughly 50%. Without closings we have limited comparables to make investment decisions. We are all looking for recent closings to benchmark property values. In the stock market we know CitiGroup Inc. will not soon return to its September 2008 value of $25 per share. In turn, we do not expect Mill Valley real estate to return to early – mid 2008 values. The question is what will the going forward adjustment be? To address “the adjustment” we need to focus neighborhood-by-neighborhood and client-by-client. It is our feeling that Mill Valley, CA closings in December 2008 – April 2009 represent comparables based on sellers that had to sell, and quickly, or sellers that thought the market would fall faster in the Spring ’09 and elected to set the comparables vs. having them used against them.

Mill Valley CA Real Estate Market Report (April 2009 Home Sales Update)

Marin Luxury Real Estate (March 2009)

While sluggishness has trickled-up into the luxury real estate market in Marin, CA., there is legitimate cause for optimism in coming months. For example, there were 161 new escrows opened in Marin County in February 2009. While the majority of these (68%) were value plays in Novato and San Rafael, it was the highest level seen since August 2008 and was 19% higher than February 2008–encouraging news since we had just 19 “working days” last month. Moreover, the first 2 weeks of March 2009, resulted in 116 opened escrows. In March 2008, we saw just 98 homes go into escrow. That is an increase of 18% over last year. Again, encouraging. For a detailed accounting of national trends, click here for the March 2009 Market Report from Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, e-mail me. 

It is clear to me that with minimal social proof, buyers will return to the market and pent-up demand will create a surge in sales figures. The $8,000 no-strings-attached credit from the government (for first time home buyers, loosely defined as someone who has not owned a home for the past 3 years and meets income limitations), the increased conforming loan limit (set to go back up to $729,750 some time in April 2009), and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board is a recipe for sales. I should also note that with the increased conforming loan amount, buyers with 25% down (and who otherwise qualify) will be able to obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of a little over $1.6 million.

[Click here for the rest of the article, courtesy of NorthBayRE.com].

Marin Real Estate (March 2009)

Although February was a short and rainy month, Marin County, CA., still experienced a good number of sales. So far in March 2009. we are seeing increasing inventory similar to “normal” years (I hesitate to call 2009 a “normal” year in light of the current economic situation). Recent gains in the stock market are a welcome change. Interest rates are down to about 5% on conforming loans right now, which is great (that is more than 1 full point lower than this time last year). So, it seems the pump is primed. We’ll see if the real estate market responds.

Obviously, the more stringent underwriting policies of lenders are stifling demand. Although word on the street is that at least one big lender has taken steps to loosen up underwriting practices. It is obvious to everybody who comes into contact with the Marin real estate market that home buyers are continuing to wait for the perceived bottom. This, despite the FACT that interest rates are as low as could be realistically expected and prices in many Marin communities and neighborhoods have receded to 2003 or 2004 price levels.

[Click here for the rest of the report, courtesy of http://www.NorthBayRE.com/blog/2009/03/12/marin-county-ca-real-estate-update-march-2009-homes-for-sale-price-ranges/.]

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