The Mill Valley real estate market remains predictably unpredictable — after logging 17 sales in May 2009, we had a robust 29 sales in June 2009. Typically, sales slow down as Summer begins and families focus more on vacations and outside activities. That slowdown will be reflected in July sales numbers. Nonetheless, there is serious value in Mill Valley right here, right now. This is true for every price band. Note to buyers: write offers! A closed mouth does not get fed. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.

The above chart tracks asking prices and shows that since November 2007 prices have slid from about $740 per square foot to about $615. As I have noted in market updates relating to other towns in Marin, asking prices have flattened out over the past 6 weeks. It will be interesting to see if this is a leading indicator of increased sales prices that carries into the Fall.

Based on last month’s sales total of 29, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last a bit more than 4.6 months. This a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate the month before, which stood at well over 8 months. Indeed, along with the larger number of sales, lots of inventory was removed from the market for the Summer and the number of homes for sale dropped to 134.

Most activity in Mill Valley is occurring in the sub $1 million price bands, which can be characterized as neutral markets, favoring neither buyers nor sellers. The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is hovering at a low 14% (about the same as last month). Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) saw some meaningful activity with 4 sales last month (including an off market sale for $5 million) and another 3 currently in escrow.

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	15 (down 4)	32%
$800K – $1 mil.	21 (down 5)	38%
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.	39 (down 3)	15%
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.	18 (down 2)	14%
$2 mil. – $4 mil.	29 (down 1)	3%
$4 mil. & Up	4 (down 1)	0%

Mill Valley’s 29 sales from June 2009 gave rise to the following averages: 98 days on the market; an average price of $1.47 million; and about 2,485 sq. ft. (or about $595 per sq. ft.). Homes in Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, Country Club, Homestead Valley, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Readers of my monthly reports on Mill Valley, CA. are well aware of my love for Mill Valley. And what’s not to like? For starters: (1) A quick and easy commute to San Francisco, (2) often spectacular views of the Bay, the Golden Gate Bridge (a short 5-10 minutes down HWY 101), and Mt. Tam, (3) excellent schools, (4) pleasant weather, (4) a mellow, laid back ambiance, (5) a town square unlike any other in Marin (you have to go to the town of Sonoma for anything like it), (6) diverse social events (think Mill Valley Film Festival & The Dipsea Race), (7) lots of good restaurants, and (8) excellent shopping choices, including non-gentrified, family-owned boutiques and shops of all kinds.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. I also have a fixer listed in Homestead Valley that is a super value play, priced at $699,000 (3 Beds/3 Baths, 14,000 sq. ft. lot backing Molino Park). If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

For several months my Mill Valley, CA, real estate report has noted that the market “is strangely out of sync,” and that buyers “are taking a few pitches to see what happens,” and I have also aired my suspicians about “undercover buyers” who are ready to buy and want to buy the “right” home. More than ever, I believe this is all true. At Morgan Lane we have about $12 million of closings taking place in the next week or so (and we closed a $4 million Mill Valley deal last month). If we can gather a little wind behind our sails, I believe we will be off to the races. Certainly, sellers seem to grasp the need for aggressive pricing and it appears that attractive new inventory will help drive the market in 2009. 

As evidenced by the above graph, The median price per square foot has dipped to about $625 per sq. ft. (which is down from well over $800 in mid-2007). While some buyers believe prices may slip a bit more, most appreciate the fact that interest rates are very appealing. Indeed, mortgage math punishes those who don’t lock in at or near the lowest rate possible. For example, if prices dip another 5% and interest rates go up just 1%, the monthly payment would increase rather significantly for an $800K home with 20% down (call me for exact numbers relating to a given situation). 

Up just a bit from February 2009, the percentage of homes in escrow under $800,000 rose to 43% (it had been as low as 15% in November 2008). Based on last month’s sales total (we had 9 sales in February 2009), we currently have an inventory of homes sufficient to last 10 months in Mill Valley, CA (this is called the absorption rate).  Overall, the number of homes for sale rose to 90 (from 73 in January 2009). The number of “bead and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is 8 — nearly tripling last month’s number (there were just 3 in escrow last month). Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) continues its sleepy hibernation–just a single luxury home closed last month (the aforementioned $4 million sale) and there none currently in escrow. 

 

Of the 9 sales to close escrow in February 2009, they averaged a low 61 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.25 million with about 2,283 sq. ft. (or about $512 per sq. ft, which is down from $518 sq. ft. last month). The numbers from February reflect the fact that 5 of the 9 sales were priced under $1 million (in Mill Valley, these are generally entry level homes). Homes in Homestead Valley, Sycamore Park, Middle Ridge, and Kite Hill continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

p.s. I currently have a couple potential sellers waiting in the wings with homes not on the MLS, please contact me to see if any of these opportunities fit your needs.

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	6 (down 3)	57%
$800K – $1 mil.	15 (down 2)	26%
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.	43 (up 12)	9%
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.	19 (down 7)	24%
$2 mil. – $4 mil.	21 (down 7)	25%
$4 mil. & Up	3 (up 1)	0%

Homes in Sycamore Park, Sunnyside, Kite Hill, Boyle Park, and Cascade Canyon continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@NorthBayRE.com.