Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (June 2009 Home Sales Update)

June 14, 2009

Readers of my monthly reports on Mill Valley, CA. are well aware of my love for Mill Valley. And what’s not to like? For starters: (1) A quick and easy commute to San Francisco, (2) often spectacular views of the Bay, the Golden Gate Bridge (a short 5-10 minutes down HWY 101), and Mt. Tam, (3) excellent schools, (4) pleasant weather, (4) a mellow, laid back ambiance, (5) a town square unlike any other in Marin (you have to go to the town of Sonoma for anything like it), (6) diverse social events (think Mill Valley Film Festival & The Dipsea Race), (7) lots of good restaurants, and (8) excellent shopping choices, including non-gentrified, family-owned boutiques and shops of all kinds. Along with all this, there is serious value right here, right now. This is true for every price band in Mill Valley. Note to buyers: write offers! A closed mouth does not get fed. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

The above graph charts asking prices and shows that since November 2007 prices have slid from about $740 per square foot to about $610. While some buyers believe prices may slip a bit more, most understand that while interest rates have risen 70 basis points in the past 3 weeks, they are still very low and that mortgage math punishes those who don’t lock in at or near the lowest rate possible. For example, if prices dip another 5% and interest rates go up just 1%, the monthly payment would increase dramatically for an $800K home with 20% down (call me for exact numbers relating to a given situation).

Based on last month’s sales total of 17 (we had 14 sales in April), we currently have an overall inventory of homes (AR) sufficient to last a bit more than 8.35 months in Mill Valley, CA (down from 11 months last month). Overall, the number of homes for sale rose to 142 (way up from 90 in February 2009). The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is hovering at 12. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) remains feeble with 3 sales last month and another 3 currently in escrow.

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	19 (up 4)	27%
$800K – $1 mil.	26 (up 3)	28%
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.	42 (up 1)	14%
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.	20 (down 1)	20%
$2 mil. – $4 mil.	30 (up 1)	9%
$4 mil. & Up	5 (up 1)	0%

Mill Valley’s 17 sales from May 2009 gave rise to the following averages: 64 days on the market; an average price of $1.167 million; and about 2,183 sq. ft. (or about $528 per sq. ft.). Homes in Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, Country Club, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. I also have a fixer listed in Homestead Valley that is a super value play, priced at $699,800 (3 Beds/3 Baths, 14,000 sq. ft. lot backing Molino Park). If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Filed Under Mill Valley Homes & Real Estate Report · Comments Off

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (May 2009 Home Sales Update)

May 16, 2009

We are consistently asked by our clients (sellers), “when will our markets return to normal?” We formed our definition of a normal Marin County market in our Q3 2008 Luxury Newsletter (call us for a copy) only to be followed by the October ’08 stock market meltdown. A normal Mill Valley market over the past ten years has been an annual average of 377 single family homes sold (31 per month). For the past six months the total has been 78 (16 per month). The number of units sold is off roughly 50%. Without closings we have limited comparables to make investment decisions. We are all looking for recent closings to benchmark property values. In the stock market we know CitiGroup Inc. will not soon return to its September 2008 value of $25 per share. In turn, we do not expect Mill Valley real estate to return to early – mid 2008 values. The question is what will the going forward adjustment be? To address “the adjustment” we need to focus neighborhood-by-neighborhood and client-by-client. It is our feeling that Mill Valley, CA closings in December 2008 – April 2009 represent comparables based on sellers that had to sell, and quickly, or sellers that thought the market would fall faster in the Spring ’09 and elected to set the comparables vs. having them used against them.

In an attempt to quantify the “adjustment” we reviewed the new list prices vs. previous selling prices of six Mill Valley homes sold in late 2007 thru early 2008 and again currently active. The six properties ranged in price from $1.2 million to $3.3 million. On average the current list prices are 6% lower than their 2007 – 2008 closing prices. Four are over 10% below. The two homes over $3 million are 13% and 16% below their previous closing prices. None of the homes are in contract. Assuming these homes ultimately go into contract 10% below asking, we can extrapolate a downward shift in the Mill Valley market from late 2007 to today between 16% – 25%.

Current Mill Valley inventory (96 listings over $1 million) ranges in pricing from $1 million to $6.5 million and from $328 – $1,305 per square foot. Our review last week illustrated average price per square foot @ $595 for homes from $1 to $2.5 million, $779 from $2.5 to $3.5 million, $935 from $3.5 to $5 million and $1,155 over $5 million. It is very important to note that price per square foot is only one measure and does not take into account, location, noise, sun, condition of property, etc.

On the buyer side we are noticing a shift in the selection and valuation of homes. From 1998 – 2008 buyers place a high “prestige” value on certain Mill Valley neighborhoods and were very focused on “I want to live in Sycamore Park”. Now we see buyers seeking “value”. They are comparing like priced listings in multiple Marin communities and seeing what value they can get for their dollar. Essentially, a buyer shift in focus from “prestige” to “value”. Sellers must be priced for perceived value.

Two other clear messages from buyers are:

1. A trend away from major remodels. This is likely a result of the changing credit markets and the loss of capital buyers experienced in the stock market meltdown.

2. A lack of willingness to write an offer on a property that is not priced in appropriate “strike zone”. Buyers seem to wait for appropriate pricing before coming forward with an offer vs. writing a low, more competitive offer. The rationale seems to be, “what if I write an offer and the seller accepts it? We will clearly have paid too much”. 3 – 5 counter offers are not unusual. Although buyers are more and more inclined to walk away if they don’t get their price.

These dynamics are not easy to anticipate much less manage. We manage these issues every day. Only closings and comparables will add clarity and consistency.

Our advice to sellers:

1. If you do not need to sell, this will not be the time in the market to maximize value. While we feel the “bottom is forming”, we are not projecting high-single digit year-over-year appreciation until we see the number of Mill Valley homes closed exceed the ten year historical rate of 377+ per year.

2. Be informed; tour the competition in your price range in Mill Valley and the rest of Southern and Central Marin.

3. Be realistic about your asking price. Serious buyers are generally represented by talented, knowledgeable agents with access to all the same data.

4. If you are selling in Spring ’09, time on the market is not your friend. The “perfect home” for the “right price” should trade in its first 30 days.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

The median price per square foot has dipped to about $575 per sq. ft. (which is down from well over $800 in mid-2007). While some buyers believe prices may slip a bit more, as noted above, most appreciate the fact that interest rates are very appealing. Indeed, mortgage math punishes those who don’t lock in at or near the lowest rate possible. For example, if prices dip another 5% and interest rates go up just 1%, the monthly payment would increase rather significantly for an $800K home with 20% down (call me for exact numbers relating to a given situation).

Down from April 2009, the percentage of homes in escrow under $800,000 slipped to 21%. I have a fixer listed in Homestead Valley that is a super value play, priced at $768,800 (3 Beds/3 Baths, 14,000 sq. ft. lot backing Molino Park). If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Based on last month’s sales total of 14 (we had 11 sales in March), we currently have an overall inventory of homes (AR) sufficient to last a bit more than 11 months in Mill Valley, CA.

Overall, the number of homes for sale rose to 133 (way up from 90 in February). The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is hovering at 1. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) seems to be improving as we have 5 such homes currently in escrow to go along with a couple of sales last month.

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	15 (up 4)	21%
$800K – $1 mil.	23 (down 4)	30%
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.	41 (up 7)	16%
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.	21 (up 6)	10%
$2 mil. – $4 mil.	29 (up 10)	18%
$4 mil. & Up	4 (up 1)	0%

Of the 14 sales to close escrow in April 2009, they averaged 64 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.41 million with about 2,394 sq. ft. (or about $575 per sq. ft.). Homes in Homestead Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

p.s. I currently have a couple potential sellers waiting in the wings with homes not on the MLS, please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs.

Filed Under Mill Valley Homes & Real Estate Report · Comments Off

Marin Real Estate (January 2009)

January 12, 2009

Marin County, California real estate has slowed. While largely a function of the season (Winter is generally slow), macro-economic considerations, and more stringent borrowing guidelines, I feel that the primary source of the current slowdown relates to a perception by home buyers that “now” is not a good time to buy. Nonetheless, interest rates are at ALL-TIME LOWS (the San Francisco Chronicle’s Real Estate section has noted these records lows each of the past four weeks), prices in many Marin communities and neighborhoods are well off their peaks, and there is a wide variety of home choices out there. As evidenced by the investor actvity of the past few months, “now” does have some momentum.

Inventory is down to 503 single family homes for sale (we had about 716 last month) in the Highway 101 corridor (this number excludes Western Marin inventory).

[Click HERE for the rest of this article, courtesy of www.NorthBayRE.com.]

Filed Under Marin Real Estate Trends · Comments Off

Mill Valley Real Estate Market Report (November 2008 Home Sales Update)

November 13, 2008

Like many of us, Mill Valley buyers are doing all they can to busy themselves in an effort to avoid being confronted with the dismal stock market results over the past few weeks. On the bright side, from a real estate perspective, the massive retrenchment taking place on the The Street is resulting in many folks liquidating those assets and looking to place them into an attractive alternative. And as luck would have it, Marin real estate provides a good outlet for these investment dollars. Yet, the market in Mill Valley does not yet reflect the expected uptick in sales numbers at the low end. I would expect that at least 50% of homes under $800,000 in Mill Valley would be in escrow, but that is not the case.

Overall, Mill Valley’s real estate market is cruising through the Autumn with little momentum. The market remains one favoring flexible buyers intent on making sacrifices in order to obtain value. Customarily for this time of year, sellers who don’t need to sell will now wait for the promise of the new year. Yet, I expect this Winter we will see many of the so-called “undercover buyers” (e.g., financially stable people waiting for the “right time” to buy) writing strong offers in an effort to take advantage of the confluence of two factors: (1) the apparent nadir of the market in general; and (2) the Wintertime’s seasonal leverage which favors buyers. I am talking with lots people who fit this profile. Although prices have not receded in Mill Valley quite like those of Novato (click HERE for Novato101.com’s market analysis for November 2008), these “undercover buyers” are eagerly investigating their options.

Continuing a trend first noted in my September 2008, we are actually seeing a reduction in the percentage of entry level homes in escrow across the board. Interestingly, even the entry level is down to just 15% of homes in escrow (down from 53% in July 2008 and 20% in September 2008). Overall, the number of homes for sale in Mill Valley is down to 101. The vast majority of homes are priced between $1 million to $2 million and just 9 of those homes are currently in escrow. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) has clearly entered into an early hibernation this year as buyers are stepping back from major purchases during these unsettled economic times. Zero luxury homes are in escrow at the time of this writing–a great environment for portfolio buyers.

Mill Valley homes that sold during the past month averaged 98 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.443 million and including about 2,185 sq. ft. (about $652 per sq. ft).

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	11 (down 1)	15%
$800K – $1 mil.	15 (up 3)	12%
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.	34 (down	11%
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.	16 (down 12)	20%
$2 mil. – $4 mil.	22 (up 4)	0%
$4 mil. & Up	4 (up 2)	0%

Homes in Boyle Park, Middle Ridge, Almonte, and Cascade Canyon continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like more information, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Filed Under Mill Valley Homes & Real Estate Report · Comments Off

Mill Valley Homes & Real Estate (October 2008)

October 14, 2008

Dear Mill Valley Homeowners– breathe easy. While the economic news is not good, your insightful decision to purchase Mill Valley real estate has likely left you in a good position. While prices tumble in other areas, even in the San Francisco Bay Area, you should, and will be, OK as we are not susceptible to the Fundy Market Phenomenon.

And for buyers with real estate market insight, there are great values out there right now. Indeed, competitively priced Mill Valley homes in desirable neighborhoods are selling quickly. It is a market favoring buyers in all price ranges, but for the entry level.

The number of Mill Valley home sales in September 2008 was down by 2 from August. Yet, while August 2008 experienced a slowdown in the percentage of entry level homes in escrow (e.g., those priced under $800,000), the percentage was back up to 38% in September–in July 2008 that percentage was an astonishing 53%. The $1.5 to $2 million price band is also performing well with 24% of these homes in escrow.

Currently, we have about 166 homes for sale in Mill Valley (up from 142 homes in September). The preponderance of these homes are priced between $1 million to $2 million–9 are currently in escrow. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley is slow with just 2 homes in escrow out of 27.

Mill Valley homes selling in September 2008 averaged 100 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.611 million (roughly $806/sq. ft.). As mentioned last month, the low end is hanging tough–there are ONLY 2 homes currently on the market under $750,000.

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	13 (up 1)	38%
$800K – $1 mil.	25 (up 13)	12%
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.	49 (up 7)	20%
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.	29 (up 1)	24%
$2 mil. – $4 mil.	23 (up 5)	9%
$4 mil. & Up	4 (up 2)	0%

Homes in Boyle Park, Middle Ridge, Homestead Valley, and Sycamore Park continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like more information, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@NorthBayRE.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Filed Under Mill Valley Homes & Real Estate Report · Comments Off

Blithedale Canyon (Mill Valley Neighborhoods Descriptions)

September 16, 2008

Blithedale Canyon is easy to find. Just head west on E. Blithedale until you pass the Art Club (where I got married) and head into the trees. This area is fabulous and is home to many of Mill Valley’s celebrities and elite. It boasts tall redwoods, lots of trails, parkland, and prototypically narrow Mill Valley streets.

Many homes are just a short walk to downtown. Many other homes are way up in the hills–the ultimate in privacy. At bottom, the canyon is dominated by the gentle flow of Corte Madera Creek–it’s a quiet, redwooded haven for crafstman-style cottages, cabins, blackberry bushes, deer, old stone walls, foggy mornings, and even some hidden staircases. Above all, it’s a fine place for a relaxing stroll.

Many hikers start their days at the Old Railroad Grade trailhead.

Filed Under Neighborhoods · Comments Off

Mill Valley Homes & Real Estate (September 2008)

September 16, 2008

All year long, it has seemed that buyers and agents alike have lamented the seeming lack of inventory of homes for sale in Mill Valley. Yet, inventory is actually up by over 20%. While many buyers with a strong desire to buy and market insight are finding great value in homes right now, other buyers are paying premiums for special homes in key locations and with unique attributes. Overall, Mill Valley’s real estate market is cruising into the Fall with good bit of momentum (although sales are down from last year). It remains a market that favors buyers who are flexible and willing to make sacrifices in order to obtain value. Meanwhile, many sellers have decided to wait for the real estate market to improve. Interestingly, I am also seeing many folks come through open houses who fit the following profile: they sold their homes a couple of years ago and have been renting with the expectation that home prices would come down (as with the dot-com bust, many saw the current real estate market slowdown on the horizon). Although prices have not dipped in Mill Valley as they have in Northern Marin, these potential buyers are eyeing the current market hungrily and many of them are investigating their options.

Oddly, August 2008 saw a marked slowdown in the percentage of entry level homes in escrow from July 2008 (it dropped from 53% of homes priced under $800,000 to 20%). Mill Valley’s inventory of single family homes for sale is about 142 homes currently on the market (there were 102 in August 2008). The vast majority of homes are priced between $1 million to $2 million and 15 of those homes are currently in escrow, along 6 more in the luxury market between $2 million and $4 million. Historically, September and October bring an uptick in sales.

Mill Valley homes that sold during the past month averaged 88 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.358 million (about $689 per square foot). Note here that the low end of the Mill Valley market is hanging tough and that there are ONLY 2 homes currently on the market under $750,000. How’s that for stiff price for entry.

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	12 (up 6)	20%
$800K – $1 mil.	12 (down 5)	20%
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.	42 (up 2)	23%
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.	28 (up 9)	7%
$2 mil. – $4 mil.	18 (up 7)	25%
$4 mil. & Up	2 (down 1)	33%

Homes in Boyle Park, Middle Ridge, Blithedale Canyon, and Cascade Canyon continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like more information, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@NorthBayRE.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Filed Under Mill Valley Homes & Real Estate Report · Comments Off

Middle Ridge (Mill Valley Neighborhoods Description)

September 16, 2008

Location. Location. Location. Middle Ridge (the community inhabiting the ridge between Blithdale and Cascade Canyons) is considered by many locals to be one of Mill Valley, California’s most desirable neighborhoods. It is known for being warm and sunny, with some outstanding views of the Bay and of San Francisco. It is just a few short blocks from downtown and many of Mill Valley’s finest homes are situated here.

Filed Under Neighborhoods · Comments Off

Marin Luxury Homes (September 2008)

September 14, 2008

The number of homes for sale in the $2 million to $4 million luxury home market in Marin County, California rose over the past month to 109, compared to 106 homes in August 2008. The slight rise in inventory coincided with a respectable month of sales with 16 homes sold in August 2008 (down by 4 from July).

Mill Valley and Ross experienced the most luxury home sales (with 4 of these homes selling in each). Belvedere, Tiburon and Corte Madera each had 2 homes sold and Kentfield and Sausalito had 1 sale each. The average days on market for homes that sold was a mere 95 days (25 days more than in July) and the average sales price was $2.927 million (roughly $875/per sq. ft.), with an average of 3,503 square feet. Belvedere and Tiburon seem to be hot as they each have 6 homes in escrow.

The inventory level in Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) receded a bit. There are 40 active listings

[ ... click here for the complete report courtesy of NorthBayRE.com].

Filed Under Luxury Homes In Marin · Leave a Comment

Marin Real Estate Trends (September 2008)

September 5, 2008

Looking outside last night, my wife commented that it was “dark already” (it was about 7:15 p.m.). I personally confirmed her observation–it looks like the seasons are changing. Predictably, after the annual slowdown of sales in Marin County during the Summer months, it seems as though activity has really picked up over the past couple of weeks. Half of my listings are in escrow (one had 3 offers) and the rest are getting lots of attention. The number of listing is up slightly (it would be up more significantly, but for the high number of Novato homes that are in escrow) and open houses are busy. Buyers seem to recognize that now may be the time to act as they are not convinced the market will tread further south and because of low interest rates (I heard that mortgage rates are down to around 5.75% for conforming loans). Qualifying for those loans is the big issue now–the underwriting process has become very demanding and unforgiving.

[click here for the rest of the story and for a table breaking down home prices in Marin County]

Filed Under Marin Real Estate Trends · Leave a Comment

« Previous Page — Next Page »