Mill Valley Real Estate Market Report (November 2008 Home Sales Update)

November 13, 2008

Like many of us, Mill Valley buyers are doing all they can to busy themselves in an effort to avoid being confronted with the dismal stock market results over the past few weeks. On the bright side, from a real estate perspective, the massive retrenchment taking place on the The Street is resulting in many folks liquidating those assets and looking to place them into an attractive alternative. And as luck would have it, Marin real estate provides a good outlet for these investment dollars. Yet, the market in Mill Valley does not yet reflect the expected uptick in sales numbers at the low end. I would expect that at least 50% of homes under $800,000 in Mill Valley would be in escrow, but that is not the case.
Overall, Mill Valley’s real estate market is cruising through the Autumn with little momentum. The market remains one favoring flexible buyers intent on making sacrifices in order to obtain value. Customarily for this time of year, sellers who don’t need to sell will now wait for the promise of the new year. Yet, I expect this Winter we will see many of the so-called “undercover buyers” (e.g., financially stable people waiting for the “right time” to buy) writing strong offers in an effort to take advantage of the confluence of two factors: (1) the apparent nadir of the market in general; and (2) the Wintertime’s seasonal leverage which favors buyers. I am talking with lots people who fit this profile. Although prices have not receded in Mill Valley quite like those of Novato (click HERE for Novato101.com’s market analysis for November 2008), these “undercover buyers” are eagerly investigating their options.   
Continuing a trend first noted in my September 2008, we are actually seeing a reduction in the percentage of entry level homes in escrow across the board. Interestingly, even the entry level is down to just 15% of homes in escrow (down from 53% in July 2008 and 20% in September 2008). Overall, the number of homes for sale in Mill Valley is down to 101. The vast majority of homes are priced between $1 million to $2 million and just 9 of those homes are currently in escrow. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) has clearly entered into an early hibernation this year as buyers are stepping back from major purchases during these unsettled economic times. Zero luxury homes are in escrow at the time of this writing–a great environment for portfolio buyers.
 
Mill Valley homes that sold during the past month averaged 98 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.443 million and including about 2,185 sq. ft. (about $652 per sq. ft).      

 

Price Range

Total Active Homes

Pending Listings

Up to $800K

11 (down 1)

15%

$800K - $1 mil.

15 (up 3)

12%

$1 mil. - 1.5 mil.

34 (down 8)

11%

$1.5 mil. - $2 mil.

16 (down 12)

20%

$2 mil. - $4 mil.

22 (up 4)

0%

$4 mil. & Up

4 (up 2) 

0% 
 

Homes in Boyle Park, Middle Ridge, Almonte, and Cascade Canyon continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like more information, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

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Mill Valley Homes & Real Estate (October 2008)

October 14, 2008

Dear Mill Valley Homeowners– breathe easy. While the economic news is not good, your insightful decision to purchase Mill Valley real estate has likely left you in a good position. While prices tumble in other areas, even in the San Francisco Bay Area, you should, and will be, OK as we are not susceptible to the Fundy Market Phenomenon.

And for buyers with real estate market insight, there are great values out there right now. Indeed, competitively priced Mill Valley homes in desirable neighborhoods are selling quickly. It is a market favoring buyers in all price ranges, but for the entry level.  
 
The number of Mill Valley home sales in September 2008 was down by 2 from August. Yet, while August 2008 experienced a slowdown in the percentage of entry level homes in escrow (e.g., those priced under $800,000), the percentage was back up to 38% in September–in July 2008 that percentage was an astonishing 53%. The $1.5 to $2 million price band is also performing well with 24% of these homes in escrow. 

Currently, we have about 166 homes for sale in Mill Valley (up from 142 homes in September). The preponderance of these homes are priced between $1 million to $2 million–9 are currently in escrow. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley is slow with just 2 homes in escrow out of 27. 
 
Mill Valley homes selling in September 2008 averaged 100 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.611 million (roughly $806/sq. ft.). As mentioned last month, the low end is hanging tough–there are ONLY 2 homes currently on the market under $750,000.    
 

Price Range

Total Active Homes

Pending Listings

Up to $800K

13 (up 1)

38%

$800K - $1 mil.

25 (up 13)

12%

$1 mil. - 1.5 mil.

49 (up 7)

20%

$1.5 mil. - $2 mil.

29 (up 1)

24%

$2 mil. - $4 mil.

23 (up 5)

9%

$4 mil. & Up

4 (up 2) 

0% 
 

Homes in Boyle Park, Middle Ridge, Homestead Valley, and Sycamore Park continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like more information, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@NorthBayRE.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

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Blithedale Canyon (Mill Valley Neighborhoods Descriptions)

September 16, 2008

Blithedale Canyon is easy to find. Just head west on E. Blithedale until you pass the Art Club (where I got married) and head into the trees. This area is fabulous and is home to many of Mill Valley’s celebrities and elite. It boasts tall redwoods, lots of trails, parkland, and prototypically narrow Mill Valley streets.

Many homes are just a short walk to downtown. Many other homes are way up in the hills–the ultimate in privacy. At bottom, the canyon is dominated by the gentle flow of Corte Madera Creek–it’s a quiet, redwooded haven for crafstman-style cottages, cabins, blackberry bushes, deer, old stone walls, foggy mornings, and even some hidden staircases. Above all, it’s a fine place for a relaxing stroll. 

Many hikers start their days at the Old Railroad Grade trailhead.

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Mill Valley Homes & Real Estate (September 2008)

September 16, 2008

All year long, it has seemed that buyers and agents alike have lamented the seeming lack of inventory of homes for sale in Mill Valley. Yet, inventory is actually up by over 20%. While many buyers with a strong desire to buy and market insight are finding great value in homes right now, other buyers are paying premiums for special homes in key locations and with unique attributes. Overall, Mill Valley’s real estate market is cruising into the Fall with good bit of momentum (although sales are down from last year). It remains a market that favors buyers who are flexible and willing to make sacrifices in order to obtain value. Meanwhile, many sellers have decided to wait for the real estate market to improve. Interestingly, I am also seeing many folks come through open houses who fit the following profile: they sold their homes a couple of years ago and have been renting with the expectation that home prices would come down (as with the dot-com bust, many saw the current real estate market slowdown on the horizon). Although prices have not dipped in Mill Valley as they have in Northern Marin, these potential buyers are eyeing the current market hungrily and many of them are investigating their options.  
 
Oddly, August 2008 saw a marked slowdown in the percentage of entry level homes in escrow from July 2008 (it dropped from 53% of homes priced under $800,000 to 20%). Mill Valley’s inventory of single family homes for sale is about 142 homes currently on the market (there were 102 in August 2008). The vast majority of homes are priced between $1 million to $2 million and 15 of those homes are currently in escrow, along 6 more in the luxury market between $2 million and $4 million. Historically, September and October bring an uptick in sales.
 
Mill Valley homes that sold during the past month averaged 88 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.358 million (about $689 per square foot). Note here that the low end of the Mill Valley market is hanging tough and that there are ONLY 2 homes currently on the market under $750,000. How’s that for stiff price for entry.   
 

Price Range

Total Active Homes

Pending Listings

Up to $800K

12 (up 6)

20%

$800K - $1 mil.

12 (down 5)

20%

$1 mil. - 1.5 mil.

42 (up 2)

23%

$1.5 mil. - $2 mil.

28 (up 9)

7%

$2 mil. - $4 mil.

18 (up 7)

25%

$4 mil. & Up

2 (down 1) 

33% 
 

Homes in Boyle Park, Middle Ridge, Blithedale Canyon, and Cascade Canyon continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like more information, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@NorthBayRE.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

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Middle Ridge (Mill Valley Neighborhoods Description)

September 16, 2008

Location. Location. Location. Middle Ridge (the community inhabiting the ridge between Blithdale and Cascade Canyons) is considered by many locals to be one of Mill Valley, California’s most desirable neighborhoods. It is known for being warm and sunny, with some outstanding views of the Bay and of San Francisco. It is just a few short blocks from downtown and many of Mill Valley’s finest homes are situated here.

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Marin Luxury Homes (September 2008)

September 14, 2008

The number of homes for sale in the $2 million to $4 million luxury home market in Marin County, California rose over the past month to 109, compared to 106 homes in August 2008. The slight rise in inventory coincided with a respectable month of sales with 16 homes sold in August 2008 (down by 4 from July).  

Mill Valley and Ross experienced the most luxury home sales (with 4 of these homes selling in each). Belvedere, Tiburon and Corte Madera each had 2 homes sold and Kentfield and Sausalito had 1 sale each. The average days on market for homes that sold was a mere 95 days (25 days more than in July) and the average sales price was $2.927 million (roughly $875/per sq. ft.), with an average of 3,503 square feet. Belvedere and Tiburon seem to be hot as they each have 6 homes in escrow.

The inventory level in Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) receded a bit. There are 40 active listings

[ ... click here for the complete report courtesy of NorthBayRE.com].

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Marin Real Estate Trends (September 2008)

September 5, 2008

Looking outside last night, my wife commented that it was “dark already” (it was about 7:15 p.m.). I personally confirmed her observation–it looks like the seasons are changing. Predictably, after the annual slowdown of sales in Marin County during the Summer months, it seems as though activity has really picked up over the past couple of weeks. Half of my listings are in escrow (one had 3 offers) and the rest are getting lots of attention. The number of listing is up slightly (it would be up more significantly, but for the high number of Novato homes that are in escrow) and open houses are busy. Buyers seem to recognize that now may be the time to act as they are not convinced the market will tread further south and because of low interest rates (I heard that mortgage rates are down to around 5.75% for conforming loans). Qualifying for those loans is the big issue now–the underwriting process has become very demanding and unforgiving.

[click here for the rest of the story and for a table breaking down home prices in Marin County]

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Boyle Park (Mill Valley Neighborhoods Description)

September 5, 2008

Boyle Park is one of Mill Valley’s most sought-after neighborhoods. It sits on the northern side of E. Blithedale Road in Mill Valley, Marin County, California. As its name suggests, it is named after and surrounds the park that shares its name and serves as its anchor. Boyle Park is truly one of the best parks in Mill Valley, with sports fields, tennis, paths, and other areas for playing (including a toddlers area), picnics, and relaxing. It features the following:

  • Large open grassy area
  • Tennis courts (Passes required)
  • Picnic tables
  • Bench or benches
  • Bathrooms
  • Playground/play structure
  • Creek access
  • Baseball diamond
  • Large open grassy area 
  • BBQ Grill & group picnic areas (reservations required)
  • Dogs permitted - Leash required

Boyle Park is also one of the sunnier parts of Mill Valley, is close to downtown, and just a couple of minutes off HWY 101. Home prices range from about $1 million to $2 million, with exceptional properties selling above that price range. These prices are about average for Mill Valley.

If you have any questions about Boyle Park, Mill Valley, or Marin County, please let me know. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a broker and Certified Residential Specialist (CRS) with Frank Howard Allen Realtors (the biggest and best firm in Marin County). And it is always my pleasure to be of service. I can be reached at (415) 350-9440.

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Mill Valley Neighborhoods

September 3, 2008

While the prevailing ethos of Mill Valley can be found in all corners, its various neighborhoods each offer something unique.

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Mill Valley 101

September 3, 2008

Welcome to Mill Valley 101, an introduction to one of the San Francisco Bay Area’s most popular and enriched towns. The allure of Mill Valley has many facets.

It is located just minutes from the iconic Golden Gate Bridge. And Mill Valley’s neighborhoods are diverse and her inhabitants educated. Naturally, the schools of Mill Valley are some of the best in California.

Mill Valley offers a wide variety of outdoor activities. It is just minutes away from the giant redwoods of Muir Woods and the virually unlimited hiking and biking opportunities provided by Mount Tamalpais. Beaches and the San Francisco Bay are in within easy walking or biking distance. There are numerous parks and fields sprinkled throughout the town.

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