Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (December 2009 Home Sales Update)

The number of home sales in the Mill Valley, California real estate market rose 20% in November 2009 — that is a total of 24 listings sold. Based on last month’s total, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last 3.1 months (significantly lower than last month) — this is called the absorption rate. This is a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months. Indeed, the number of homes for sale in Mill Valley is a very low 75, typical for this time of year. Meanwhile, asking prices have seemed to stiffen over the past quarter. The graph below tracks asking prices; the average price per square foot for homes currently on the market is rising — approximately $622 per square foot. It remains to be seen whether this rise will translate into higher sales prices.

While the number of homes in escrow is down from last month, that is typical this time of year as buyers and sellers alike are focused on surviving the holiday season. We still think there are many real buyers out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy — we don’t know what that sign will be (there are likely to be many “signs”), but we feel it will likely come soon. Numerous newspaper articles have run recently, pointing to the exceptional opportunities out there right now for buyers — indeed, we are starting to hear investors talk about “flipping” homes again!

In fact, the percentage of homes in escrow remains strong at 44% in the lowest price band (under $800,000). This indicates that Mill Valley’s low end market is competitive and that fact bodes well. In Novato, for example, we believe the bottom began to form in April and May 2009 when the low end market began to see escrow ratios over 50% (Novato’s entry level price band has since reached over 80% of homes in escrow in what has become a very tight market). Since then, Novato’s overall market has become increasingly hotter across all price bands. I believe if Mill Valley follows suit, we will see a marked increase in sales over the next few months, particularly if San Francisco firms begin providing bonuses again in the New Year (Click HERE). Remember, last year, there were no bonuses and as a result (at least in part), we had a flat-lining market for the first 5 months of the year.

Below is a graph detailing the number of homes in escrow in each price band:

Homes in Tam Valley, Strawberry, Sycamore Park, and Country Club generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service. Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin | Pacific Union International.

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (August 2009 Home Sales Update)

The Mill Valley, CA. real estate market remains predictably unpredictable — after just 17 sales in May 2009, we had a robust 29 sales in June 2009, followed by 22 sales in July 2009. As I noted in last month’s report, the decline in sales numbers this month was expected as families focus more on vacations and outside activities. And September will bring even fewer home sales, along with a moderate rise in inventory and increased buyer activity.

Over the past quarter in much of Marin County, it has become apparent that asking prices have halted their downward spiral. As is evident in the graph below, which tracks the median price per square foot (down from $740 to $615), in Mid-June 2009 prices flattened out in Mill Valley. It will be interesting to see whether this flattening out carries over into the sales prices of homes trading this Fall and Winter.

Based on last month’s sales total of 22, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last about 5.45 months (up from 4.6 months in July 2009) — this is called the absorption rate. This is a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months. A big reason for the lower absorption rate is the reduced inventory as sellers removed thier homes from the market for the Summer — we currently have just 120 active listings.

While not discussed by most real estate agents, the absorption rate is an important barometer of market health. Below is a graph showing that in 2009, Mill Valley has consistently outperformed 2008 in terms of homes absorbed. Thus, while many agents seem despondent and unenthusiastic about the market, the truth is that things are much better than last year and continue improving. I predict that sales activity will increase significantly in the late Fall and into the Winter months, not only because of continued favorable interest rates, but also because I think there are many “real buyers” out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy — I don’t know what that sign will be (there are likely to be many “signs”), but it will come soon for “real buyers.”

Most activity in Mill Valley is occurring in the sub $1 million price bands, which can be characterized as neutral markets, favoring neither buyers nor sellers. The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is hovering at a low 12% (about the same as last month). Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) saw some meaningful activity with 3 sales last month and another 6 currently in escrow. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	17 (up 2)	37%
$800K - $1 mil.	18 (down 3)	36%
$1 mil. - 1.5 mil.	40 (up 1)	18%
$1.5 mil. - $2 mil.	18 (no change)	0%
$2 mil. - $4 mil.	30 (down 1)	17%
$4 mil. & Up	4 (no change)	0%

Mill Valley’s 22 sales from July 2009 gave rise to the following averages: 86 days on the market; an average price of $963,591; and about 1,844 sq. ft. (or about $556 per sq. ft.). Homes in Tam Valley, Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, Country Club, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Readers of my monthly reports on Mill Valley, CA. are well aware of my love for Mill Valley. And what’s not to like? For starters: (1) A quick and easy commute to San Francisco, (2) often spectacular views of the Bay, the Golden Gate Bridge (a short 5-10 minutes down HWY 101), and Mt. Tam, (3) excellent schools, (4) pleasant weather, (4) a mellow, laid back ambiance, (5) a town square unlike any other in Marin (you have to go to the town of Sonoma for anything like it), (6) diverse social events (think Mill Valley Film Festival & The Dipsea Race), (7) lots of good restaurants, and (8) excellent shopping choices, including non-gentrified, family-owned boutiques and shops of all kinds.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (June 2009 Home Sales Update)

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (May 2009 Home Sales Update)

We are consistently asked by our clients (sellers), “when will our markets return to normal?” We formed our definition of a normal Marin County market in our Q3 2008 Luxury Newsletter (call us for a copy) only to be followed by the October ’08 stock market meltdown. A normal Mill Valley market over the past ten years has been an annual average of 377 single family homes sold (31 per month). For the past six months the total has been 78 (16 per month). The number of units sold is off roughly 50%. Without closings we have limited comparables to make investment decisions. We are all looking for recent closings to benchmark property values. In the stock market we know CitiGroup Inc. will not soon return to its September 2008 value of $25 per share. In turn, we do not expect Mill Valley real estate to return to early – mid 2008 values. The question is what will the going forward adjustment be? To address “the adjustment” we need to focus neighborhood-by-neighborhood and client-by-client. It is our feeling that Mill Valley, CA closings in December 2008 – April 2009 represent comparables based on sellers that had to sell, and quickly, or sellers that thought the market would fall faster in the Spring ’09 and elected to set the comparables vs. having them used against them.

Mill Valley Real Estate Market Report (December 2008 Home Sales Update)

To avoid sounding like a Pollyanna, this month’s Mill Valley market report is brief and restrained; necessarily so–sales numbers are down in the wake of the September meltdown in the equity markets. Clearly, the Mill Valley real estate market favors buyers. The “undercover buyers” (e.g., financially stable people waiting for the “right time” to buy) are not writing offers despite the delicious variety of choices. Continuing a trend first noted in my September 2008 market report, the percentage of entry level homes in escrow is down to 15% (it was 53% in July 2008). Supply has dwindled to just 79 homes for sale in Mill Valley and just 8 “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) are in escrow. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) continues hibernating–zero luxury homes are in escrow. Perhaps this is an excellent environment for portfolio buyers? Yet, the approaching holidays bring hope. And the New Year brings more hope.

Mill Valley homes that sold during November 2008 (there were 14) averaged 104 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.3 million. They averaged about 2,080 sq. ft. (or about $661 per sq. ft).

Homes in Boyle Park, Middle Ridge, Sycamore Park continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, or local references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.