Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (March 2009 Home Sales Update)

March 11, 2009

For several months my Mill Valley, CA, real estate report has noted that the market “is strangely out of sync,” and that buyers “are taking a few pitches to see what happens,” and I have also aired my suspicians about “undercover buyers” who are ready to buy and want to buy the “right” home. More than ever, I believe this is all true. At Morgan Lane we have about $12 million of closings taking place in the next week or so (and we closed a $4 million Mill Valley deal last month). If we can gather a little wind behind our sails, I believe we will be off to the races. Certainly, sellers seem to grasp the need for aggressive pricing and it appears that attractive new inventory will help drive the market in 2009. 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

As evidenced by the above graph, The median price per square foot has dipped to about $625 per sq. ft. (which is down from well over $800 in mid-2007). While some buyers believe prices may slip a bit more, most appreciate the fact that interest rates are very appealing. Indeed, mortgage math punishes those who don’t lock in at or near the lowest rate possible. For example, if prices dip another 5% and interest rates go up just 1%, the monthly payment would increase rather significantly for an $800K home with 20% down (call me for exact numbers relating to a given situation). 

Up just a bit from February 2009, the percentage of homes in escrow under $800,000 rose to 43% (it had been as low as 15% in November 2008). Based on last month’s sales total (we had 9 sales in February 2009), we currently have an inventory of homes sufficient to last 10 months in Mill Valley, CA (this is called the absorption rate).  Overall, the number of homes for sale rose to 90 (from 73 in January 2009). The number of “bead and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is 8 — nearly tripling last month’s number (there were just 3 in escrow last month). Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) continues its sleepy hibernation–just a single luxury home closed last month (the aforementioned $4 million sale) and there none currently in escrow. 

Price Range

Total Active Homes

Pending Listings

Up to $750K

7 (down 5)

43%

$750K - $1 mil.

27 (up 11)

7%

$1 mil. - 1.5 mil.

32 (down 10)

19%

$1.5 mil. - $2 mil.

15 (down 13)

13%

$2 mil. - $4 mil.

19 (up 1)

0%

$4 mil. & Up

3 (up 1) 

0% 

 

Of the 9 sales to close escrow in February 2009, they averaged a low 61 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.25 million with about 2,283 sq. ft. (or about $512 per sq. ft, which is down from $518 sq. ft. last month). The numbers from February reflect the fact that 5 of the 9 sales were priced under $1 million (in Mill Valley, these are generally entry level homes). Homes in Homestead Valley, Sycamore Park, Middle Ridge, and Kite Hill continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

p.s. I currently have a couple potential sellers waiting in the wings with homes not on the MLS, please contact me to see if any of these opportunities fit your needs.

Mill Valley Real Estate Market Report (February 2009 Home Sales Update)

February 12, 2009

Mill Valley real estate is strangely out of sync. Those who read my reports regularly will note that recent months have seen buyers make a concerted downshift. It seems that buyers have shifted into first gear (and I apologize in advance, but you are going to need to reconcile metaphors here) and are taking a few pitches in order to gauge the market. While it is looking like there may be an nominally better tax break in the Stimulus Bill, reports indicate we will not see a $15K tax credit. Whatever happens though, I sense that with the elimination of all the uncertainty regarding what the government is planning to do, we will then gather some traction. I know lots of folks are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the “right time” to buy. They will make their move this year as attractively priced new inventory drives the market.

While some buyers believe prices may slip a bit more, most appreciate the fact that interest rates have never, ever been lower (we are back down to 4.75% conforming rates this week). Indeed, mortgage math punishes those who don’t lock in at the lowest rate possible. For example, if prices dip another 5% and interest rates go up just 1%, the monthly payment would increase.

Up just a bit from January 2009, the percentage of homes in escrow under $800,000 rose to 40% (it had been as low as 15% in November). Overall, we currently have enough homes to last 6 months in Mill Valley (this is called the absorption rate). However, if you limit that analysis to homes priced under $1 million, our absorption rate drops to just 3.75 months. Overall, Mill Valley saw an increase in the number of homes for sale (77). Just 3 “bead and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) are currently under contract (there were 7 in escrow last month). Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) continues its long hibernation–a mere one luxury home has an accepted offer in place and just one home in this price band sold last month.

Speaking of sales, we saw 12 Mill Valley home sales close escrow in January 2009. They averaged 148 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $986,000 with about 1,844 sq. ft. (or about $518 per sq. ft). The numbers from January reflect the fact that 8 of the 12 sales were priced under $1 million (in Mill Valley, these are generally entry level homes). Homes in Strawberry, Sycamore Park, Middle Ridge, and Sunnyside continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Mill Valley Real Estate Market Report (December 2008 Home Sales Update)

December 12, 2008

To avoid sounding like a Pollyanna, this month’s Mill Valley market report is brief and restrained; necessarily so–sales numbers are down in the wake of the September meltdown in the equity markets. Clearly, the Mill Valley real estate market favors buyers. The “undercover buyers” (e.g., financially stable people waiting for the “right time” to buy) are not writing offers despite the delicious variety of choices. Continuing a trend first noted in my September 2008 market report, the percentage of entry level homes in escrow is down to 15% (it was 53% in July 2008). Supply has dwindled to just 79 homes for sale in Mill Valley and just 8 “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) are in escrow. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) continues hibernating–zero luxury homes are in escrow. Perhaps this is an excellent environment for portfolio buyers? Yet, the approaching holidays bring hope. And the New Year brings more hope.

Mill Valley homes that sold during November 2008 (there were 14) averaged 104 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.3 million. They averaged about 2,080 sq. ft. (or about $661 per sq. ft).

Homes in Boyle Park, Middle Ridge, Sycamore Park continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, or local references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Mill Valley Homes & Real Estate (October 2008)

October 14, 2008

Dear Mill Valley Homeowners– breathe easy. While the economic news is not good, your insightful decision to purchase Mill Valley real estate has likely left you in a good position. While prices tumble in other areas, even in the San Francisco Bay Area, you should, and will be, OK as we are not susceptible to the Fundy Market Phenomenon.

And for buyers with real estate market insight, there are great values out there right now. Indeed, competitively priced Mill Valley homes in desirable neighborhoods are selling quickly. It is a market favoring buyers in all price ranges, but for the entry level.  
 
The number of Mill Valley home sales in September 2008 was down by 2 from August. Yet, while August 2008 experienced a slowdown in the percentage of entry level homes in escrow (e.g., those priced under $800,000), the percentage was back up to 38% in September–in July 2008 that percentage was an astonishing 53%. The $1.5 to $2 million price band is also performing well with 24% of these homes in escrow. 

Currently, we have about 166 homes for sale in Mill Valley (up from 142 homes in September). The preponderance of these homes are priced between $1 million to $2 million–9 are currently in escrow. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley is slow with just 2 homes in escrow out of 27. 
 
Mill Valley homes selling in September 2008 averaged 100 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.611 million (roughly $806/sq. ft.). As mentioned last month, the low end is hanging tough–there are ONLY 2 homes currently on the market under $750,000.    
 

Price Range

Total Active Homes

Pending Listings

Up to $800K

13 (up 1)

38%

$800K - $1 mil.

25 (up 13)

12%

$1 mil. - 1.5 mil.

49 (up 7)

20%

$1.5 mil. - $2 mil.

29 (up 1)

24%

$2 mil. - $4 mil.

23 (up 5)

9%

$4 mil. & Up

4 (up 2) 

0% 

 

Homes in Boyle Park, Middle Ridge, Homestead Valley, and Sycamore Park continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like more information, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@NorthBayRE.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Mill Valley Homes & Real Estate (September 2008)

September 16, 2008

All year long, it has seemed that buyers and agents alike have lamented the seeming lack of inventory of homes for sale in Mill Valley. Yet, inventory is actually up by over 20%. While many buyers with a strong desire to buy and market insight are finding great value in homes right now, other buyers are paying premiums for special homes in key locations and with unique attributes. Overall, Mill Valley’s real estate market is cruising into the Fall with good bit of momentum (although sales are down from last year). It remains a market that favors buyers who are flexible and willing to make sacrifices in order to obtain value. Meanwhile, many sellers have decided to wait for the real estate market to improve. Interestingly, I am also seeing many folks come through open houses who fit the following profile: they sold their homes a couple of years ago and have been renting with the expectation that home prices would come down (as with the dot-com bust, many saw the current real estate market slowdown on the horizon). Although prices have not dipped in Mill Valley as they have in Northern Marin, these potential buyers are eyeing the current market hungrily and many of them are investigating their options.  
 
Oddly, August 2008 saw a marked slowdown in the percentage of entry level homes in escrow from July 2008 (it dropped from 53% of homes priced under $800,000 to 20%). Mill Valley’s inventory of single family homes for sale is about 142 homes currently on the market (there were 102 in August 2008). The vast majority of homes are priced between $1 million to $2 million and 15 of those homes are currently in escrow, along 6 more in the luxury market between $2 million and $4 million. Historically, September and October bring an uptick in sales.
 
Mill Valley homes that sold during the past month averaged 88 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.358 million (about $689 per square foot). Note here that the low end of the Mill Valley market is hanging tough and that there are ONLY 2 homes currently on the market under $750,000. How’s that for stiff price for entry.   
 

Price Range

Total Active Homes

Pending Listings

Up to $800K

12 (up 6)

20%

$800K - $1 mil.

12 (down 5)

20%

$1 mil. - 1.5 mil.

42 (up 2)

23%

$1.5 mil. - $2 mil.

28 (up 9)

7%

$2 mil. - $4 mil.

18 (up 7)

25%

$4 mil. & Up

2 (down 1) 

33% 

 

Homes in Boyle Park, Middle Ridge, Blithedale Canyon, and Cascade Canyon continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like more information, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@NorthBayRE.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Mill Valley 101

September 3, 2008

Welcome to Mill Valley 101, an introduction to one of the San Francisco Bay Area’s most popular and enriched towns. The allure of Mill Valley has many facets.

It is located just minutes from the iconic Golden Gate Bridge. And Mill Valley’s neighborhoods are diverse and her inhabitants educated. Naturally, the schools of Mill Valley are some of the best in California.

Mill Valley offers a wide variety of outdoor activities. It is just minutes away from the giant redwoods of Muir Woods and the virually unlimited hiking and biking opportunities provided by Mount Tamalpais. Beaches and the San Francisco Bay are in within easy walking or biking distance. There are numerous parks and fields sprinkled throughout the town.