Top Agent (January 2016) Mill Valley Real Estate Report | Pacific Union

January 7, 2016

Mill Valley Real Estate Report (January 2016 Home Sales Update) | Pacific Union (click HERE for a video about Mill Valley). For the unaquainted, Mill Valley (just north of the Golden Gate Bridge, across the bay from San Francisco) is widely considered one of the most desirable towns in the Bay Area. Affluent buyers from all walks of life live and thrive here. December 2015 was a very active month for home sales — there were 27 trades, which is nearly double the number of home sales recorded in December 2014 (there were just 15). The average sales price of approximately $1.895 million, was also a bit higher than 2014. In fact, virtually every metric used to assess the strength of a given market trended positive. The sold properties of December 2015 averaged 2,414 square feet at $787 per sq. ft. (in 2014, the average size and price per foot were 2,399 square feet and $726 per sq. ft.). As pricing increased significantly over the past couple of years, Mill Valley home buyers have not been deterred. Exceptional properties in desirable locations and with reasonably calculated pricing strategies continue to receive multiple offers with bid prices well above asking price (indeed, multiple offers are quite common on such homes), coupled with short contingencies. I expect that this will continue in 2016.

There are currently just 10 single family homes currently listed in Mill Valley. This incredibly low inventory reflects the time of year, but nonetheless renders a whisper thin absorption rate of about 11 days (6 months is considered “balanced”). Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Mill Valley’s major price bands (note that due to increased prices, I have eliminated the “under $800,000″ price level in my analyses):

  • 43% of homes below $1 million;
  • 53% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million;
  • 50% of homes between $1.5 million and $2 million;
  • 38% of homes between $2 million and up.

Of the 28 homes that sold in December 2015:

  • 20 homes were under $1.5 million;
  • 8 homes priced from $1.5 million and up.

MLS Listings in Homestead Valley, Boyle ParkMiddle Ridge and Strawberry neighborhoods generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Mill Valley neighborhood or if you have any questions about Mill Valley schools or its many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Top Agent, J.D., Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Mill Valley Real Estate Report (November 2014 Home Sales Update) | Pacific Union

November 21, 2014

Mill Valley Real Estate Report (November 2014 Home Sales Update) | Pacific Union (click HERE for a video about Mill Valley). After a fairly slow Summer sales season, due in part to the natural lull in the selling cycle, the post Labor Day sales season picked up some, but felt soft and uninspired. As for October sales, Mill Valley experienced 37 single family home sales. These homes sold for an average price of $1.571 million. The properties averaged 2,290 sq. ft. (or about $693 per sq. ft.). Comparing these numbers to past market updates, one can see a dramatic rise in both sale prices and price per foot over the past year. Brokers and agents alike are noting waning buyer enthusiasm levels due in large part to the quick and seemingly unabated rise in Mill Valley home prices over the past 24 months. Nonetheless, properties in desirable locations and with reasonably calculated pricing continue to receive multiple offers with bid prices as much as 10% above asking price (although multiple offers are now not as common as early in 2014), coupled with short contingencies. This momentum extends beyond just the entry level homes and int the luxury segment over $2 million. In fact, we had 8 homes sell for over $2 million in October 2014 (compared with just 3 homes in August 2014).

There are just 46 single family homes currently active on the market in Mill Valley. The current absorption rate in Mill Valley is a very low 1.5 months (6 months is considered “balanced”).

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Mill Valley’s major price bands:
■40% of homes priced under $800,000;
■46% of homes between $801,000 and $1 million;
■47% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million;
■22% of homes between $1.5 million and $2 million;
■14% of homes between $2 million and up.

Of the 37 homes that sold in October 2014:
■4 homes were priced under $800,000;
■19 homes priced from $800,000 to $1.5 million; and
■14 homes priced from $1.5 million and up.

MLS Listings in Homestead Valley, Boyle ParkMiddle Ridge and Strawberry neighborhoods generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Mill Valley neighborhood or if you have any questions about Mill Valley schools or its many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Top Agent, J.D., Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Kyle Frazier, Pacific Union Int'l

Mill Valley Real Estate Report (Pacific Union March 2011 Home Sales Update)

March 17, 2011

February 2011 home sales in Mill Valley climbed ever-so-slightly to 15 (up from 13 in January). These trades sold for an average price of $903,927 and averaged 2,151 sq. ft. (or about $453 per sq. ft.).  While anecdotally we are hearing about increased activity, the fact remains that pricing is key. Buyers insist on apparent and undeniable value. If they don’t see it in a property, they are willing to wait it out. The number of listings actively on the market in the MLS remains very low at 72. I suspect once the current rainy spell ends (it looks like it is supposed to rain non-stop for another weeks), we will see inventory balloon. It will be interesting to see how sales play out in Q2 as it appears that bonuses for employees working in the San Francisco financial sector may spur bread-and-butter and luxury sales in our highly desirable city.

The percentage of homes in escrow:

  • Under $800,ooo — 48%
  • $800,000 to $1 million — 24%
  • $1 million to $1.5 million — 33%
  • $1.5 million to $2 million — 20%
  • Above $2 million — 0%

Listings in Boyle Park and Homestead Valley generated the most calls this month.

If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. I currently have several clients who want to sell, but are waiting in the wings for Spring 2011. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. I am also a member of the Top Agent Network and Marin Platinum Group with access to dozens of homes not “officially” on the market but available for sale.

If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, e-mail me. It is always my pleasure to be of service. Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International Mill Valley, CA.

Pacific Union Real Estate Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Report (June 2010 Home Sales Update)

June 18, 2010

Similar to May 2010, the number of homes sold in the Mill Valley, California real estate market rose and Mill Valley’s touchstone price band ($1 million to $2 million) posted another solid month. Buyers are again speaking confidently about the market as prices have tumbled, interest rates are extraordinary, jobs numbers have improved, and media coverage concerning real estate has turned positive. I have a strong sense that many feel a tailwind.

The number of homes for sale in Mill Valley is up marginally to 147. Summer is upon us, school is out, and the primary selling season has wrapped up. Mill Valley’s entry level price bands (under $1,000,000) are as strong as we have seen them over the past couple of years. Moreover, the luxury price band of $2 mil. to $4 mil. is HOT — 32% of these homes are in escrow) several with multiple offers — of course, the ones that are selling are priced extremely well). The chart below show that median sales prices have equalized for 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom homes under $1 million compared with last year.

Mill Valley’s 20 sales in May 2010 gave rise to the following averages: an average price of $1,161,875; and about 2,059 sq. ft. (or about $530 per sq. ft.). Note that the price per square foot number is prone to wild swings from month to month. For example, two months ago, the price per square foot was $640 in Mill Valley. This is because the composition of sales varies dramatically from month to month — at best, price per square foot is a blunt instrument. Homes in Tam Valley, Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, and Country Club generated the most calls this month.

Get It Now (Entry Level Mill Valley Home For Sale):

617 Springfield Way in Tam Valley is now on the market. Priced at $865,000, this private home (with a new roof in June 2010) sits on ~1/3 acre at the end of  a serene cul de sac in a magnificent setting. It features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths upstairs, along with a large unit downstairs which would be perfect au pair quarters or income — it has rented out recently for ~$1,000/mo.

If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. I am also a member of the Marin Platinum Group with access to dozens of homes not “officially” on the market but available for sale. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service. Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International.

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (June 2009 Home Sales Update)

June 14, 2009

Readers of my monthly reports on Mill Valley, CA. are well aware of my love for Mill Valley. And what’s not to like? For starters: (1) A quick and easy commute to San Francisco, (2) often spectacular views of the Bay, the Golden Gate Bridge (a short 5-10 minutes down HWY 101), and Mt. Tam, (3) excellent schools, (4) pleasant weather, (4) a mellow, laid back ambiance, (5) a town square unlike any other in Marin (you have to go to the town of Sonoma for anything like it), (6) diverse social events (think Mill Valley Film Festival & The Dipsea Race), (7) lots of good restaurants, and (8) excellent shopping choices, including non-gentrified, family-owned boutiques and shops of all kinds. Along with all this, there is serious value right here, right now. This is true for every price band in Mill Valley. Note to buyers: write offers! A closed mouth does not get fed. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

The above graph charts asking prices and shows that since November 2007 prices have slid from about $740 per square foot to about $610. While some buyers believe prices may slip a bit more, most understand that while interest rates have risen 70 basis points in the past 3 weeks, they are still very low and that mortgage math punishes those who don’t lock in at or near the lowest rate possible. For example, if prices dip another 5% and interest rates go up just 1%, the monthly payment would increase dramatically for an $800K home with 20% down (call me for exact numbers relating to a given situation). 

Based on last month’s sales total of 17 (we had 14 sales in April), we currently have an overall inventory of homes (AR) sufficient to last a bit more than 8.35 months in Mill Valley, CA (down from 11 months last month). Overall, the number of homes for sale rose to 142 (way up from 90 in February 2009). The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is hovering at 12. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) remains feeble with 3 sales last month and another 3 currently in escrow. 

Price Range

Total Active Homes

Pending Listings

Up to $800K

19 (up 4)

27%

$800K – $1 mil.

26 (up 3)

28%

$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.

42 (up 1)

14%

$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.

20 (down 1)

20%

$2 mil. – $4 mil.

30 (up 1)

9%

$4 mil. & Up

5 (up 1) 

0% 

Mill Valley’s 17 sales from May 2009 gave rise to the following averages: 64 days on the market; an average price of $1.167 million; and about 2,183 sq. ft. (or about $528 per sq. ft.). Homes in Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, Country Club, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. 

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. I also have a fixer listed in Homestead Valley that is a super value play, priced at $699,800 (3 Beds/3 Baths, 14,000 sq. ft. lot backing Molino Park). If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (May 2009 Home Sales Update)

May 16, 2009

We are consistently asked by our clients (sellers), “when will our markets return to normal?” We formed our definition of a normal Marin County market in our Q3 2008 Luxury Newsletter (call us for a copy) only to be followed by the October ’08 stock market meltdown. A normal Mill Valley market over the past ten years has been an annual average of 377 single family homes sold (31 per month). For the past six months the total has been 78 (16 per month). The number of units sold is off roughly 50%. Without closings we have limited comparables to make investment decisions. We are all looking for recent closings to benchmark property values. In the stock market we know CitiGroup Inc. will not soon return to its September 2008 value of $25 per share. In turn, we do not expect Mill Valley real estate to return to early – mid 2008 values. The question is what will the going forward adjustment be? To address “the adjustment” we need to focus neighborhood-by-neighborhood and client-by-client. It is our feeling that Mill Valley, CA closings in December 2008 – April 2009 represent comparables based on sellers that had to sell, and quickly, or sellers that thought the market would fall faster in the Spring ’09 and elected to set the comparables vs. having them used against them.

In an attempt to quantify the “adjustment” we reviewed the new list prices vs. previous selling prices of six Mill Valley homes sold in late 2007 thru early 2008 and again currently active. The six properties ranged in price from $1.2 million to $3.3 million. On average the current list prices are 6% lower than their 2007 – 2008 closing prices. Four are over 10% below. The two homes over $3 million are 13% and 16% below their previous closing prices. None of the homes are in contract. Assuming these homes ultimately go into contract 10% below asking, we can extrapolate a downward shift in the Mill Valley market from late 2007 to today between 16% – 25%.
 
Current Mill Valley inventory (96 listings over $1 million) ranges in pricing from $1 million to $6.5 million and from $328 – $1,305 per square foot. Our review last week illustrated average price per square foot @ $595 for homes from $1 to $2.5 million, $779 from $2.5 to $3.5 million, $935 from $3.5 to $5 million and $1,155 over $5 million. It is very important to note that price per square foot is only one measure and does not take into account, location, noise, sun, condition of property, etc.
 
On the buyer side we are noticing a shift in the selection and valuation of homes. From 1998 – 2008 buyers place a high “prestige” value on certain Mill Valley neighborhoods and were very focused on “I want to live in Sycamore Park”. Now we see buyers seeking “value”. They are comparing like priced listings in multiple Marin communities and seeing what value they can get for their dollar. Essentially, a buyer shift in focus from “prestige” to “value”.  Sellers must be priced for perceived value.
 
Two other clear messages from buyers are:  
1.       A trend away from major remodels. This is likely a result of the changing credit markets and the loss of capital buyers experienced in the stock market meltdown.  
2.       A lack of willingness to write an offer on a property that is not priced in appropriate “strike zone”. Buyers seem to wait for appropriate pricing before coming forward with an offer vs. writing a low, more competitive offer. The rationale seems to be, “what if I write an offer and the seller accepts it? We will clearly have paid too much”. 3 – 5 counter offers are not unusual. Although buyers are more and more inclined to walk away if they don’t get their price.
 
These dynamics are not easy to anticipate much less manage.  We manage these issues every day. Only closings and comparables will add clarity and consistency.
Our advice to sellers:
1.       If you do not need to sell, this will not be the time in the market to maximize value. While we feel the “bottom is forming”, we are not projecting high-single digit year-over-year appreciation until we see the number of Mill Valley homes closed exceed the ten year historical rate of 377+ per year.
2.       Be informed; tour the competition in your price range in Mill Valley and the rest of Southern and Central Marin.
3.       Be realistic about your asking price. Serious buyers are generally represented by talented, knowledgeable agents with access to all the same data.
4.       If you are selling in Spring ’09, time on the market is not your friend. The “perfect home” for the “right price” should trade in its first 30 days.
 

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

The median price per square foot has dipped to about $575 per sq. ft. (which is down from well over $800 in mid-2007). While some buyers believe prices may slip a bit more, as noted above, most appreciate the fact that interest rates are very appealing. Indeed, mortgage math punishes those who don’t lock in at or near the lowest rate possible. For example, if prices dip another 5% and interest rates go up just 1%, the monthly payment would increase rather significantly for an $800K home with 20% down (call me for exact numbers relating to a given situation). 

Down from April 2009, the percentage of homes in escrow under $800,000 slipped to 21%. I have a fixer listed in Homestead Valley that is a super value play, priced at $768,800 (3 Beds/3 Baths, 14,000 sq. ft. lot backing Molino Park). If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Based on last month’s sales total of 14 (we had 11 sales in March), we currently have an overall inventory of homes (AR) sufficient to last a bit more than 11 months in Mill Valley, CA.

Overall, the number of homes for sale rose to 133 (way up from 90 in February). The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is hovering at 1. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) seems to be improving as we have 5 such homes currently in escrow to go along with a couple of sales last month. 

Price Range

Total Active Homes

Pending Listings

Up to $800K

15 (up 4)

21%

$800K – $1 mil.

23 (down 4)

30%

$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.

41 (up 7)

16%

$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.

21 (up 6)

10%

$2 mil. – $4 mil.

29 (up 10)

18%

$4 mil. & Up

4 (up 1) 

0% 

Of the 14 sales to close escrow in April 2009, they averaged 64 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.41 million with about 2,394 sq. ft. (or about $575 per sq. ft.). Homes in Homestead Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

p.s. I currently have a couple potential sellers waiting in the wings with homes not on the MLS, please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs.

Blithedale Canyon (Mill Valley Neighborhoods Descriptions)

September 16, 2008

Blithedale Canyon is easy to find. Just head west on E. Blithedale until you pass the Art Club (where I got married) and head into the trees. This area is fabulous and is home to many of Mill Valley’s celebrities and elite. It boasts tall redwoods, lots of trails, parkland, and prototypically narrow Mill Valley streets.

Many homes are just a short walk to downtown. Many other homes are way up in the hills–the ultimate in privacy. At bottom, the canyon is dominated by the gentle flow of Corte Madera Creek–it’s a quiet, redwooded haven for crafstman-style cottages, cabins, blackberry bushes, deer, old stone walls, foggy mornings, and even some hidden staircases. Above all, it’s a fine place for a relaxing stroll. 

Many hikers start their days at the Old Railroad Grade trailhead.

Cascade Canyon (Mill Valley Neighborhoods Description)

September 16, 2008

Heading west from Downtown Mill Valley on Throckmorton you will come across Old Mill Park on the left (Old Mill School is on the right). Head into the park and you will then run into Cascade Drive, which winds its way through the trees and along the creek way up into the hills.

This is delightful Cascade Canyon. It is supremely picturesque and a hot area for real estate. Tall redwoods, lots of trails, parkland, and the prototypically narrow Mill Valley streets are all present here.

Many homes are just a short walk to downtown. Many other homes are way up in the hills–the ultimate in privacy.

Middle Ridge (Mill Valley Neighborhoods Description)

September 16, 2008

Location. Location. Location. Middle Ridge (the community inhabiting the ridge between Blithdale and Cascade Canyons) is considered by many locals to be one of Mill Valley, California’s most desirable neighborhoods. It is known for being warm and sunny, with some outstanding views of the Bay and of San Francisco. It is just a few short blocks from downtown and many of Mill Valley’s finest homes are situated here.

Mill Valley Neighborhoods

September 3, 2008

While the prevailing ethos of Mill Valley can be found in all corners, its various neighborhoods each offer something unique.

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