Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (August 2009 Home Sales Update)

The Mill Valley, CA. real estate market remains predictably unpredictable — after just 17 sales in May 2009, we had a robust 29 sales in June 2009, followed by 22 sales in July 2009. As I noted in last month’s report, the decline in sales numbers this month was expected as families focus more on vacations and outside activities. And September will bring even fewer home sales, along with a moderate rise in inventory and increased buyer activity.

Over the past quarter in much of Marin County, it has become apparent that asking prices have halted their downward spiral. As is evident in the graph below, which tracks the median price per square foot (down from $740 to $615), in Mid-June 2009 prices flattened out in Mill Valley. It will be interesting to see whether this flattening out carries over into the sales prices of homes trading this Fall and Winter.

Based on last month’s sales total of 22, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last about 5.45 months (up from 4.6 months in July 2009) — this is called the absorption rate. This is a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months. A big reason for the lower absorption rate is the reduced inventory as sellers removed thier homes from the market for the Summer — we currently have just 120 active listings.

While not discussed by most real estate agents, the absorption rate is an important barometer of market health. Below is a graph showing that in 2009, Mill Valley has consistently outperformed 2008 in terms of homes absorbed. Thus, while many agents seem despondent and unenthusiastic about the market, the truth is that things are much better than last year and continue improving. I predict that sales activity will increase significantly in the late Fall and into the Winter months, not only because of continued favorable interest rates, but also because I think there are many “real buyers” out there who have been waiting for “a sign” to buy — I don’t know what that sign will be (there are likely to be many “signs”), but it will come soon for “real buyers.”

Most activity in Mill Valley is occurring in the sub $1 million price bands, which can be characterized as neutral markets, favoring neither buyers nor sellers. The number of “bread and butter” homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is hovering at a low 12% (about the same as last month). Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) saw some meaningful activity with 3 sales last month and another 6 currently in escrow. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Price Range	Total Active Homes	Pending Listings
Up to $800K	17 (up 2)	37%
$800K – $1 mil.	18 (down 3)	36%
$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.	40 (up 1)	18%
$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.	18 (no change)	0%
$2 mil. – $4 mil.	30 (down 1)	17%
$4 mil. & Up	4 (no change)	0%

Mill Valley’s 22 sales from July 2009 gave rise to the following averages: 86 days on the market; an average price of $963,591; and about 1,844 sq. ft. (or about $556 per sq. ft.). Homes in Tam Valley, Scott Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, Country Club, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at Kyle@MillValley101.com.

Readers of my monthly reports on Mill Valley, CA. are well aware of my love for Mill Valley. And what’s not to like? For starters: (1) A quick and easy commute to San Francisco, (2) often spectacular views of the Bay, the Golden Gate Bridge (a short 5-10 minutes down HWY 101), and Mt. Tam, (3) excellent schools, (4) pleasant weather, (4) a mellow, laid back ambiance, (5) a town square unlike any other in Marin (you have to go to the town of Sonoma for anything like it), (6) diverse social events (think Mill Valley Film Festival & The Dipsea Race), (7) lots of good restaurants, and (8) excellent shopping choices, including non-gentrified, family-owned boutiques and shops of all kinds.

p.s. I currently have several clients who want to be sellers, but are waiting in the wings. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | Kyle@MillValley101.com. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (June 2009 Home Sales Update)

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (May 2009 Home Sales Update)

We are consistently asked by our clients (sellers), “when will our markets return to normal?” We formed our definition of a normal Marin County market in our Q3 2008 Luxury Newsletter (call us for a copy) only to be followed by the October ’08 stock market meltdown. A normal Mill Valley market over the past ten years has been an annual average of 377 single family homes sold (31 per month). For the past six months the total has been 78 (16 per month). The number of units sold is off roughly 50%. Without closings we have limited comparables to make investment decisions. We are all looking for recent closings to benchmark property values. In the stock market we know CitiGroup Inc. will not soon return to its September 2008 value of $25 per share. In turn, we do not expect Mill Valley real estate to return to early – mid 2008 values. The question is what will the going forward adjustment be? To address “the adjustment” we need to focus neighborhood-by-neighborhood and client-by-client. It is our feeling that Mill Valley, CA closings in December 2008 – April 2009 represent comparables based on sellers that had to sell, and quickly, or sellers that thought the market would fall faster in the Spring ’09 and elected to set the comparables vs. having them used against them.

Marin Luxury Real Estate (March 2009)

While sluggishness has trickled-up into the luxury real estate market in Marin, CA., there is legitimate cause for optimism in coming months. For example, there were 161 new escrows opened in Marin County in February 2009. While the majority of these (68%) were value plays in Novato and San Rafael, it was the highest level seen since August 2008 and was 19% higher than February 2008–encouraging news since we had just 19 “working days” last month. Moreover, the first 2 weeks of March 2009, resulted in 116 opened escrows. In March 2008, we saw just 98 homes go into escrow. That is an increase of 18% over last year. Again, encouraging. For a detailed accounting of national trends, click here for the March 2009 Market Report from Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, e-mail me. 

It is clear to me that with minimal social proof, buyers will return to the market and pent-up demand will create a surge in sales figures. The $8,000 no-strings-attached credit from the government (for first time home buyers, loosely defined as someone who has not owned a home for the past 3 years and meets income limitations), the increased conforming loan limit (set to go back up to $729,750 some time in April 2009), and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board is a recipe for sales. I should also note that with the increased conforming loan amount, buyers with 25% down (and who otherwise qualify) will be able to obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of a little over $1.6 million.

[Click here for the rest of the article, courtesy of NorthBayRE.com].

Marin Real Estate Trends (December 2008)

Insofar as Marin County goes, the holiday season is not traditionally an active time for home sales–this year is no exception. Inventory is down to 607 homes for sale (we had about 716 last month). Although reports of multiple offers continue–especially on well-priced bank owned properties in Novato–even the foreclosures are sometimes taking a long while meandering to a close. Despite the ongoing financial crisis, interest rates are very attractive and they are being pushed down further for those that qualify. I do feel that there is a large level of pent-up demand that will expose itself in the new year. But, until then, enjoy your families, your friends, and the holidays.

Marin Luxury Homes (December 2008)

Ponzi schemes, equity markets, banking woes, mounting unemployment, diminished home values and equity, generalized fear, and a palpable spending paralysis continue to weigh down and negatively impact luxury real estate sales in Marin County, California. I struggle to find the appropriate adjective to describe Marin County’s current luxury home market. Torpid? Sluggish? Drowsing? You get the idea. The same holds true nationwide as caution and prudence carry the day.

There are 85 homes on the market between $2 million and $4 million. As predicted in last month’s update, November sales slowed significantly following the mid-September meltdown in the financial sector–there were only 5 sales (down from 19 in October). Each of the following cities or towns had one sale: Mill Valley, San Rafael, Tiburon, Belvedere, and Kentfield. The average days on market for the homes that sold was 80 days and the average sales price was just over $2.58 million (roughly $849 per square foot), with an average of 3,209 square feet. Belvedere and Tiburon have 5 and 3 homes, respectively, currently in escrow.

The inventory level in Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) has again dropped precipitously (as is common this time of year). There are now 34 active listings, compared with 49 in November. Belvedere and Tiburon provide a large percentage of our ultra-luxury homes. Other cities / towns with homes in this price band include Kentfield, Sausalito, Mill Valley, Ross, San Rafael, and Novato. Somewhat surprisingly, there were no sales last month (we can usually expect at least 3 sales per month during the slow season). Further underscoring the pervasive caution gripping buyers, we currently have no ultra-luxury homes in escrow.

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